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Thesis · thesis_mo2wp3lw_mb1vdk
APE

APE

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T12:50:55Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +0.80%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Ran to +3.47% at peak but closed +0.80% — gave back 2.67pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1000
Entry high
$0.1002
Target 1
$0.1006
Target 2
$0.1009
Stop loss
$0.0997
APE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.16060.14470.12870.11280.09680.15085/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
58.2
Bullish
ADX 14
27.6
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
6.63% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1400
2000.1500
TA Workspace · APE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.151050 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
250,000 APE
$25.03K
Leverage
2.50x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.080100
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1006
+1.25R$125.00(+1.25%)
T2 hit @ 0.1009
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.0997
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 75.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 12.2, returned 5.93%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 46.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0997, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
APE Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. APE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
APE
Price0.10
Timestamp1776430108154
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 64.91,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.08,
    "width": 23.07
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.09,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 70.97,
    "d": 73.23
  },
  "adx14": 46.68,
  "obv": -1831301.344334249
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776430108152,
    "price": 0.1001,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 2.33
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.33,
        "d": 20
      },
      "adx14": 17.19,
      "obv": 368360.54376351996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776430108152,
    "price": 0.1001,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 4.63
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20,
        "d": 17.78
      },
      "adx14": 24.42,
      "obv": 477983.35957148
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776430108153,
    "price": 0.1001,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 23.07
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 70.97,
        "d": 73.23
      },
      "adx14": 46.68,
      "obv": -1831301.344334249
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776430108154,
    "price": 0.1001,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.96,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 23.15
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.09,
        "d": 88.03
      },
      "adx14": 18.4,
      "obv": -18482025.681064084
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest872273.16
Price0.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.10
Take profit0.10
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked APE mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.2
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.40
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.2
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked APE mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score33.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1001
Funding rate
-0.0032%
Open interest
$0.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See APE chart with overlay More thesesAll APE theses