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Thesis · thesis_mo309tdk_vzzxtd
ZEC

ZEC

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-17T14:31:02Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.31%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.31% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$352.4124
Entry high
$354.6036
Target 1
$359.6214
Target 2
$363.3683
Stop loss
$348.03
ZEC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
662.16579.89497.62415.34333.07620.475/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
62.9
Bullish
ADX 14
28.3
Trending
ATR 14
30.94
4.98% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 625.86
Lower 518.70
inside
SMA stack
20572.28
50557.87
200550.31
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · ZEC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ZEC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $620.6200 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
18.2548 ZEC
$6.45K
Leverage
0.65x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 359.6214
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 363.3683
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 348.03
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ZEC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 124.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 23.7, returned 15.83%, win rate 85.7%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 16.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $348.0300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
ZEC Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. ZEC cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ZEC
Price353.51
Timestamp1776436121127
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.54,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -4.06,
    "signal": -3.46,
    "histogram": -0.6
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 367.31,
    "middle": 348.03,
    "lower": 328.76,
    "width": 11.08
  },
  "sma20": 348.03,
  "sma50": 358.18,
  "sma200": 271.58,
  "ema12": 343.59,
  "ema26": 347.65,
  "atr14": 12.47,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 70.45,
    "d": 31.58
  },
  "adx14": 16.79,
  "obv": 120969.32201339006
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776436121125,
    "price": 353.50797291,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 78.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 4.42,
        "signal": 2.24,
        "histogram": 2.18
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 354.07,
        "middle": 338.48,
        "lower": 322.89,
        "width": 9.21
      },
      "sma20": 338.48,
      "sma50": 336,
      "sma200": 342.81,
      "ema12": 344.66,
      "ema26": 340.24,
      "atr14": 3.4,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 88.52,
        "d": 92.48
      },
      "adx14": 31.85,
      "obv": -2306.5837686499976
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776436121126,
    "price": 353.50797291,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.6,
        "signal": -1.66,
        "histogram": 2.26
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 351.03,
        "middle": 338.84,
        "lower": 326.64,
        "width": 7.2
      },
      "sma20": 338.84,
      "sma50": 342.89,
      "sma200": 358.24,
      "ema12": 341.03,
      "ema26": 340.44,
      "atr14": 5.59,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 88.78,
        "d": 90.9
      },
      "adx14": 17.48,
      "obv": 48873.90102376003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776436121126,
    "price": 353.50797291,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -4.06,
        "signal": -3.46,
        "histogram": -0.6
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 367.31,
        "middle": 348.03,
        "lower": 328.76,
        "width": 11.08
      },
      "sma20": 348.03,
      "sma50": 358.18,
      "sma200": 271.58,
      "ema12": 343.59,
      "ema26": 347.65,
      "atr14": 12.47,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 70.45,
        "d": 31.58
      },
      "adx14": 16.79,
      "obv": 120969.32201339006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776436121127,
    "price": 353.50797291,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 31.92,
        "signal": 28.92,
        "histogram": 3
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 418.64,
        "middle": 302.4,
        "lower": 186.15,
        "width": 76.88
      },
      "sma20": 302.4,
      "sma50": 255.81,
      "sma200": 344.26,
      "ema12": 335.35,
      "ema26": 303.43,
      "atr14": 27.58,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 74.6,
        "d": 70.61
      },
      "adx14": 37.66,
      "obv": 2318390.8498687367
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest115008665.88
Price353.51
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss348.03
Take profit363.37
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.55
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ZEC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread19.75
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.7
  • LONG desk bias has 79 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence94.50
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.7
  • LONG desk bias has 79 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.20
Note
Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$353.508
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$115.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ZEC chart with overlay More thesesAll ZEC theses