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Thesis · thesis_mo33qpec_gtu5yh
HYPE

HYPE

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 94d ago · 2026-04-17T16:08:05Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.53%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.53% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$45.1396
Entry high
$45.5744
Target 1
$46.7049
Target 2
$47.531
Stop loss
$44.27
HYPE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
69.5562.9356.3149.6943.0761.857/15 17:007/16 23:007/18 05:007/19 11:007/20 17:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · normalSMA · death cross
RSI 14
51.8
Neutral
ADX 14
26.1
Trending
ATR 14
1.16
1.88% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 62.18
Lower 58.77
inside
SMA stack
2060.48
5063.13
20065.90
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $61.8620 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
91.9963 HYPE
$4.17K
Leverage
0.42x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 46.7049
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 47.531
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 44.27
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 173.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 23.2, returned 19.53%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 42.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $44.2700, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable. HYPE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price45.36
Timestamp1776441908539
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 61.54,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.54,
    "signal": 0.61,
    "histogram": -0.07
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.62,
    "middle": 44.27,
    "lower": 42.91,
    "width": 6.13
  },
  "sma20": 44.27,
  "sma50": 42.78,
  "sma200": 39.43,
  "ema12": 44.4,
  "ema26": 43.86,
  "atr14": 1.11,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 62.31,
    "d": 45.61
  },
  "adx14": 42.36,
  "obv": 1174331.65611059
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776441908537,
    "price": 45.357,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.28,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.36,
        "signal": 0.29,
        "histogram": 0.07
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.66,
        "middle": 44.46,
        "lower": 43.25,
        "width": 5.42
      },
      "sma20": 44.46,
      "sma50": 44.02,
      "sma200": 44.41,
      "ema12": 44.86,
      "ema26": 44.5,
      "atr14": 0.31,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.6,
        "d": 90.81
      },
      "adx14": 39.77,
      "obv": 132540.66914620996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776441908538,
    "price": 45.357,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.2,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0.22
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.27,
        "middle": 44.02,
        "lower": 42.77,
        "width": 5.67
      },
      "sma20": 44.02,
      "sma50": 44.43,
      "sma200": 42.69,
      "ema12": 44.49,
      "ema26": 44.3,
      "atr14": 0.53,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.77,
        "d": 96.64
      },
      "adx14": 20.13,
      "obv": 139790.77419817005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776441908538,
    "price": 45.357,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.54,
        "signal": 0.61,
        "histogram": -0.07
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.62,
        "middle": 44.27,
        "lower": 42.91,
        "width": 6.13
      },
      "sma20": 44.27,
      "sma50": 42.78,
      "sma200": 39.43,
      "ema12": 44.4,
      "ema26": 43.86,
      "atr14": 1.11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.31,
        "d": 45.61
      },
      "adx14": 42.36,
      "obv": 1174331.65611059
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776441908539,
    "price": 45.357,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 2.06,
        "signal": 1.49,
        "histogram": 0.58
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 46.27,
        "middle": 39.56,
        "lower": 32.84,
        "width": 33.95
      },
      "sma20": 39.56,
      "sma50": 37.4,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 42.18,
      "ema26": 40.12,
      "atr14": 2.53,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 88.54,
        "d": 82.51
      },
      "adx14": 30.49,
      "obv": 14830.922948309526
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest972652287.49
Price45.36
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.80
Leverage3
Stop loss44.27
Take profit47.53
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.2
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.40
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.2
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
rewarding
Score2
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score60.40
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$45.357
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$972.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses