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Thesis · thesis_mo345n9m_qrvrv6
TIA

TIA

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 92d ago · 2026-04-17T16:19:45Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.08%
peak +0.08% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +8.00%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +8.00% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4023
Entry high
$0.4072
Target 1
$0.4234
Target 2
$0.4348
Stop loss
$0.3898
TIA · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.43890.41630.39380.37120.34860.3567/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
27.5
Oversold
ADX 14
25.6
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
2.81% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4200
Lower 0.3400
inside
SMA stack
200.3800
500.4000
2000.3900
PatternsBullish HaramiBullish Marubozu
TA Workspace · TIA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

TIA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.355860 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,688.9632 TIA
$2.71K
Leverage
0.27x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.01
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.4234
+1.25R$124.75(+1.25%)
T2 hit @ 0.4348
+2.01R$201.00(+2.01%)
Stop hit @ 0.3898
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open TIA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 42.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 25.0, returned 19.38%, win rate 62.5%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 44.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 57.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3898, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
TIA Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. TIA cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
TIA
Price0.40
Timestamp1776442645147
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 75.39,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.03,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.44,
    "middle": 0.36,
    "lower": 0.27,
    "width": 46.16
  },
  "sma20": 0.36,
  "sma50": 0.32,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.38,
  "ema26": 0.36,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 84.11,
    "d": 83.61
  },
  "adx14": 57.73,
  "obv": 2653158.567829999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776442645145,
    "price": 0.40476495,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.41,
        "lower": 0.39,
        "width": 6.39
      },
      "sma20": 0.41,
      "sma50": 0.4,
      "sma200": 0.37,
      "ema12": 0.41,
      "ema26": 0.41,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.82,
        "d": 33.82
      },
      "adx14": 16.98,
      "obv": 633910.6566699999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776442645146,
    "price": 0.40476495,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.4,
        "lower": 0.39,
        "width": 7.31
      },
      "sma20": 0.4,
      "sma50": 0.37,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.4,
      "ema26": 0.39,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50.22,
        "d": 65.18
      },
      "adx14": 58.38,
      "obv": 1522118.9682500013
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776442645146,
    "price": 0.40476495,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 75.39,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.44,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 46.16
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.38,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.11,
        "d": 83.61
      },
      "adx14": 57.73,
      "obv": 2653158.567829999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776442645147,
    "price": 0.40476495,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.22,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.31,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 44.51
      },
      "sma20": 0.31,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.59,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.32,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 88.43,
        "d": 92.87
      },
      "adx14": 17.99,
      "obv": -23783293.41059
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest3010844.86
Price0.40
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.15
Leverage2
Stop loss0.39
Take profit0.43
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.71
Warnings
  • RSI 75.4 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for TIA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 25.0
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score44.40
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence42.60
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 25.0
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 44.4.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.10
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score25.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4048
Funding rate
0.0022%
Open interest
$3.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See TIA chart with overlay More thesesAll TIA theses