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Thesis · thesis_mo34aoww_r5an99
WIF

WIF

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-17T16:23:37Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.14%.

  • Closed -0.14% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2194
Entry high
$0.2220
Target 1
$0.2340
Target 2
$0.2421
Stop loss
$0.2100
WIF · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.24570.2260.20630.18650.16680.17665/29 01:005/30 07:005/31 13:006/1 19:006/3 01:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
52.5
Neutral
ADX 14
13.6
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0100
5.32% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2000
Lower 0.1700
inside
SMA stack
200.1900
500.1900
2000.2000
TA Workspace · WIF
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

WIF · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.189580 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
9,345.7944 WIF
$2.06K
Leverage
0.21x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.234
+1.24R$124.30(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.2421
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.21
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open WIF on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 84.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (latest asset) scored 18.9, returned 13.46%, win rate 55.6%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 40.4.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 39.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2100, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Strategy lab confidence is usable. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
WIF Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Strategy lab confidence is usable. Strategy command is defensive. WIF cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
WIF
Price0.22
Timestamp1776442881445
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 64.95,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.23,
    "middle": 0.21,
    "lower": 0.18,
    "width": 21.56
  },
  "sma20": 0.21,
  "sma50": 0.2,
  "sma200": 0.19,
  "ema12": 0.21,
  "ema26": 0.21,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 82.41,
    "d": 77.37
  },
  "adx14": 39.81,
  "obv": 3632626.053660004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "WIF",
    "timestamp": 1776442881444,
    "price": 0.2207,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.23,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.21,
        "width": 6.1
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.22,
      "sma200": 0.21,
      "ema12": 0.22,
      "ema26": 0.22,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 38.75,
        "d": 44.26
      },
      "adx14": 31.04,
      "obv": 32850.50521999997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "WIF",
    "timestamp": 1776442881444,
    "price": 0.2207,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.21,
        "width": 6.2
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.21,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.22,
      "ema26": 0.22,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.67,
        "d": 73.92
      },
      "adx14": 39.57,
      "obv": 569696.3734899998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "WIF",
    "timestamp": 1776442881445,
    "price": 0.2207,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.23,
        "middle": 0.21,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 21.56
      },
      "sma20": 0.21,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.21,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 82.41,
        "d": 77.37
      },
      "adx14": 39.81,
      "obv": 3632626.053660004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "WIF",
    "timestamp": 1776442881445,
    "price": 0.2207,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.19,
        "lower": 0.16,
        "width": 27.68
      },
      "sma20": 0.19,
      "sma50": 0.19,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.19,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 89.08,
        "d": 84.2
      },
      "adx14": 22.87,
      "obv": -47500576.76278003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest8258470.51
Price0.22
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.58
Leverage2
Stop loss0.21
Take profit0.24
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.85
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for WIF; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score40.40
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence45.80
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 40.4.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-7.80
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score17
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2207
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$8.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See WIF chart with overlay More thesesAll WIF theses