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Thesis · thesis_mo34fjao_kewnvu
ETH

ETH

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-17T16:27:28Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.57%.

  • Closed -0.57% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,440.3
Entry high
$2,464.88
Target 1
$2,528.79
Target 2
$2,575.5
Stop loss
$2,391.14
ETH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2,613.452,404.732,1961,987.271,778.551,868.75/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
31.8
Bearish
ADX 14
41.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.31
2.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2075
Lower 1833
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1868.70 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1.6272 ETH
$3.99K
Leverage
0.40x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2528.7942
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 2575.5
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 2391.135
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 164.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 19.7, returned 11.78%, win rate 55.6%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 96.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 26.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $2391.1350, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable.

Final thesis
ETH Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable. ETH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Timestamp1776443106992
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 70.06,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 27.22,
    "signal": 26.06,
    "histogram": 1.16
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2404.75,
    "middle": 2348.76,
    "lower": 2292.76,
    "width": 4.77
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 40.97,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 53.39
  },
  "adx14": 26.1,
  "obv": 23563.45391712001
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776443106990,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 75.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 25.42,
        "signal": 23.77,
        "histogram": 1.66
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2485.38,
        "middle": 2408.06,
        "lower": 2330.74,
        "width": 6.42
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 15.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 57.06
      },
      "adx14": 54.8,
      "obv": 1606.647134000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776443106991,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 73.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 21.51,
        "signal": 8.89,
        "histogram": 12.62
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2433.61,
        "middle": 2357.73,
        "lower": 2281.84,
        "width": 6.44
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 22.67,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 60.06
      },
      "adx14": 27.59,
      "obv": 48067.41136139997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776443106991,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 70.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 27.22,
        "signal": 26.06,
        "histogram": 1.16
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2404.75,
        "middle": 2348.76,
        "lower": 2292.76,
        "width": 4.77
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 40.97,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 53.39
      },
      "adx14": 26.1,
      "obv": 23563.45391712001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776443106992,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 65.02,
        "signal": 41.93,
        "histogram": 23.09
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2411.69,
        "middle": 2169.09,
        "lower": 1926.49,
        "width": 22.37
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 110.35,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 56.2
      },
      "adx14": 21.01,
      "obv": -577566.0764514997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1073757998.10
Price2452.59
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.75
Leverage2
Stop loss2391.14
Take profit2575.50
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.51
Warnings
  • RSI 70.1 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.7
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score96.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence89.30
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.7
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 96.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score1.60
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score64
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,452.59
Funding rate
-0.0052%
Open interest
$1073.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses