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Thesis · thesis_mo3apgwf_vpos53
SEI

SEI

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-17T19:23:07Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
72/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.75%.

  • Closed +0.75% at conviction 72/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0595
Entry high
$0.0597
Target 1
$0.0591
Target 2
$0.0588
Stop loss
$0.0600
SEI · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.07270.06910.06540.06180.05810.06445/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
45.2
Neutral
ADX 14
18.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0700
Lower 0.0600
inside
SMA stack
200.0700
500.0700
2000.0600
PatternsBullish Engulfing
TA Workspace · SEI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SEI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.064455 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
250,000 SEI
$14.90K
Leverage
1.49x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.079600
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0591
+1.25R$125.00(+1.25%)
T2 hit @ 0.0588
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.06
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SEI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 29.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Bear case
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 112.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.9, returned 11.27%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SEI Short: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. SEI cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SEI
Price0.06
Timestamp1776453610166
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 67.17,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.06,
    "middle": 0.06,
    "lower": 0.05,
    "width": 13.71
  },
  "sma20": 0.06,
  "sma50": 0.06,
  "sma200": 0.06,
  "ema12": 0.06,
  "ema26": 0.06,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 89.39,
    "d": 89.27
  },
  "adx14": 29.26,
  "obv": 6876936.062159998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776453610165,
    "price": 0.05961233,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 2.39
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.3,
        "d": 25.68
      },
      "adx14": 22.46,
      "obv": 1207667.0569499973
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776453610165,
    "price": 0.05961233,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.38,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 6.28
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.14,
        "d": 73.54
      },
      "adx14": 31.27,
      "obv": 6388138.92885
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776453610166,
    "price": 0.05961233,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 13.71
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 89.39,
        "d": 89.27
      },
      "adx14": 29.26,
      "obv": 6876936.062159998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776453610166,
    "price": 0.05961233,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.02,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 17.65
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.12,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 92.34,
        "d": 85.84
      },
      "adx14": 20.49,
      "obv": -184525778.38175002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2401115.90
Price0.06
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.06
Take profit0.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.65
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SEI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread18.25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked SEI mostly because: Directional debate is still neutral (spread 7.5 / conviction 58.4), so thesis synthesis is skipped.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.30
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked SEI mostly because: Directional debate is still neutral (spread 7.5 / conviction 58.4), so thesis synthesis is skipped.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.80
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0596
Funding rate
0.0044%
Open interest
$2.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See SEI chart with overlay More thesesAll SEI theses