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Thesis · thesis_mo3jfbxp_by4sgd
SEI

SEI

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-17T23:27:11Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/70
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.54%.

  • Closed +0.54% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0582
Entry high
$0.0588
Target 1
$0.0566
Target 2
$0.0555
Stop loss
$0.0600
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
43.3
Bearish
ADX 14
18.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0700
Lower 0.0600
inside
SMA stack
200.0700
500.0700
2000.0600
TA Workspace · SEI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SEI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.064425 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
66,666.6667 SEI
$3.90K
Leverage
0.39x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0566
+1.27R$126.67(+1.27%)
T2 hit @ 0.0555
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.06
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SEI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 29.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 58.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.6, returned 10.81%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 29.9.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Short still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SEI Short: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. SEI cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SEI
Price0.06
Timestamp1776468292127
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.88,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.06,
    "middle": 0.06,
    "lower": 0.05,
    "width": 13.7
  },
  "sma20": 0.06,
  "sma50": 0.06,
  "sma200": 0.06,
  "ema12": 0.06,
  "ema26": 0.06,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 69.35,
    "d": 83.98
  },
  "adx14": 29.74,
  "obv": 6274442.371569999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776468292125,
    "price": 0.05849,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 1.67
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 5.69
      },
      "adx14": 25.64,
      "obv": 443972.4486400003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776468292126,
    "price": 0.05849,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 6.09
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.95,
        "d": 48.34
      },
      "adx14": 25.4,
      "obv": 6382890.607770001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776468292126,
    "price": 0.05849,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 13.7
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.35,
        "d": 83.98
      },
      "adx14": 29.74,
      "obv": 6274442.371569999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776468292127,
    "price": 0.05849,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 16.89
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.12,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.47,
        "d": 81.55
      },
      "adx14": 20.49,
      "obv": -194083639.77459002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2336427.05
Price0.06
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.71
Leverage2
Stop loss0.06
Take profit0.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.58
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SEI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread18.75
Dominant Conviction69.75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction30.25
Bear Conviction69.75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.6
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score29.90
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence34.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.6
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 29.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score15
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0585
Funding rate
0.0049%
Open interest
$2.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SEI chart with overlay More thesesAll SEI theses