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Thesis · thesis_mo3n6y3l_x5xvlg
SUI

SUI

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 93d ago · 2026-04-18T01:12:40Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.09%.

  • Closed +0.09% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9939
Entry high
$1.0009
Target 1
$1.019
Target 2
$1.0322
Stop loss
$0.9800
SUI · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
1.04770.96230.87680.79130.70580.76337/15 17:007/16 23:007/18 05:007/19 11:007/20 17:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · lowSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
64.3
Bullish
ADX 14
11.7
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0100
1.31% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.7600
Lower 0.7300
above upper
SMA stack
200.7500
500.7400
2000.7300
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.763760 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
5,747.1264 SUI
$5.73K
Leverage
0.57x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.019
+1.24R$124.14(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.0322
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.98
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 127.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 14.9, returned 12.68%, win rate 66.7%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 99.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 37.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.9800, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SUI Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. SUI cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SUI
Price1.00
Timestamp1776474601936
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.92,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.03,
    "middle": 0.98,
    "lower": 0.92,
    "width": 11.24
  },
  "sma20": 0.98,
  "sma50": 0.95,
  "sma200": 0.93,
  "ema12": 0.99,
  "ema26": 0.97,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 49.23,
    "d": 58.22
  },
  "adx14": 37.06,
  "obv": -11654025.972600004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776474601934,
    "price": 0.9974,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 34.79,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.02,
        "middle": 1.01,
        "lower": 0.99,
        "width": 2.9
      },
      "sma20": 1.01,
      "sma50": 1.02,
      "sma200": 0.99,
      "ema12": 1,
      "ema26": 1.01,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 19.72,
        "d": 12.49
      },
      "adx14": 28.03,
      "obv": -1812851.95048
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776474601935,
    "price": 0.9974,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.04,
        "middle": 1.01,
        "lower": 0.98,
        "width": 6.18
      },
      "sma20": 1.01,
      "sma50": 0.99,
      "sma200": 0.95,
      "ema12": 1.01,
      "ema26": 1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 8.35,
        "d": 15.03
      },
      "adx14": 23.93,
      "obv": 1130379.17881
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776474601935,
    "price": 0.9974,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.03,
        "middle": 0.98,
        "lower": 0.92,
        "width": 11.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.98,
      "sma50": 0.95,
      "sma200": 0.93,
      "ema12": 0.99,
      "ema26": 0.97,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 49.23,
        "d": 58.22
      },
      "adx14": 37.06,
      "obv": -11654025.972600004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776474601936,
    "price": 0.9974,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.02,
        "middle": 0.92,
        "lower": 0.83,
        "width": 20.56
      },
      "sma20": 0.92,
      "sma50": 0.94,
      "sma200": 1.56,
      "ema12": 0.96,
      "ema26": 0.94,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.61,
        "d": 82.98
      },
      "adx14": 14.64,
      "obv": -234649914.51765984
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest19577207.32
Price1.00
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.98
Take profit1.03
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.74
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 30.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score99.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84.50
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 30.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 99.4.
Live-learning brain
State
rewarding
Score1
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score43
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.9974
Funding rate
0.0056%
Open interest
$19.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses