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Thesis · thesis_mo3nmkkt_tnjkv6
SEI

SEI

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T01:24:52Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.29%.

  • Closed +0.29% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0578
Entry high
$0.0585
Target 1
$0.0559
Target 2
$0.0545
Stop loss
$0.0600
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
43.1
Bearish
ADX 14
18.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0700
Lower 0.0600
inside
SMA stack
200.0700
500.0700
2000.0600
TA Workspace · SEI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SEI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.063610 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
54,054.0541 SEI
$3.14K
Leverage
0.31x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.97
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0559
+1.22R$121.62(+1.22%)
T2 hit @ 0.0545
+1.97R$197.30(+1.97%)
Stop hit @ 0.06
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SEI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 29.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 100.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 19.9, returned 11.27%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 93.8.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Short still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SEI Short: constructive command with guarded risk

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. SEI cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SEI
Price0.06
Timestamp1776475327140
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.6,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.06,
    "middle": 0.06,
    "lower": 0.05,
    "width": 13.36
  },
  "sma20": 0.06,
  "sma50": 0.06,
  "sma200": 0.06,
  "ema12": 0.06,
  "ema26": 0.06,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 53.51,
    "d": 70.49
  },
  "adx14": 29.61,
  "obv": 5493415.276949997
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776475327139,
    "price": 0.0581552,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 33.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 2.76
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.75,
        "d": 6.98
      },
      "adx14": 34.09,
      "obv": 383605.43997000053
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776475327139,
    "price": 0.0581552,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 5.43
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 8.81,
        "d": 18.99
      },
      "adx14": 23.6,
      "obv": 6349435.89774
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776475327139,
    "price": 0.0581552,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.6,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 13.36
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 53.51,
        "d": 70.49
      },
      "adx14": 29.61,
      "obv": 5493415.276949997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776475327140,
    "price": 0.0581552,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 17.08
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.12,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.63,
        "d": 83.43
      },
      "adx14": 19.73,
      "obv": -198408516.46232003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest2366193.45
Price0.06
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.41
Leverage2
Stop loss0.06
Take profit0.05
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.17
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SEI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread18.50
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.9
  • SHORT desk bias has 74 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score93.80
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.30
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.9
  • SHORT desk bias has 74 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 93.8.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score37.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0582
Funding rate
-0.0038%
Open interest
$2.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SEI chart with overlay More thesesAll SEI theses