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Thesis · thesis_mo3pfs5r_53ay8d
IMX

IMX

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 91d ago · 2026-04-18T02:15:28Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.09%.

  • Closed +0.09% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1676
Entry high
$0.1696
Target 1
$0.1793
Target 2
$0.1858
Stop loss
$0.1600
IMX · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.18880.17240.15590.13950.12310.12697/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · normalSMA · death cross
RSI 14
39.3
Bearish
ADX 14
15.2
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1300
Lower 0.1300
inside
SMA stack
200.1300
500.1300
2000.1300
PatternsBullish Marubozu
TA Workspace · IMX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

IMX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.126820 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
11,627.907 IMX
$1.96K
Leverage
0.20x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1793
+1.24R$124.42(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1858
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.16
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open IMX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 124.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 27.3, returned 19.54%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 94.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 54.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
IMX Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. IMX cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
IMX
Price0.17
Timestamp1776478345164
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 63.86,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.18,
    "middle": 0.16,
    "lower": 0.15,
    "width": 20.1
  },
  "sma20": 0.16,
  "sma50": 0.15,
  "sma200": 0.15,
  "ema12": 0.17,
  "ema26": 0.16,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 25.58,
    "d": 35.36
  },
  "adx14": 54.78,
  "obv": 770171.0445053889
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776478345163,
    "price": 0.1686,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.64,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.17,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 1.92
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 13.64,
        "d": 28.79
      },
      "adx14": 20.7,
      "obv": 616511.5250070002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 9,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776478345163,
    "price": 0.1686,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.45,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.17,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 4.02
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 4.69,
        "d": 5.21
      },
      "adx14": 49.07,
      "obv": 850895.1282285497
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776478345164,
    "price": 0.1686,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.16,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 20.1
      },
      "sma20": 0.16,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.16,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.58,
        "d": 35.36
      },
      "adx14": 54.78,
      "obv": 770171.0445053889
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776478345164,
    "price": 0.1686,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.9,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.17,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 32.23
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.29,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 56.7,
        "d": 70.83
      },
      "adx14": 19.47,
      "obv": -12836880.503749972
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest743413.20
Price0.17
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.45
Leverage2
Stop loss0.16
Take profit0.19
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %5.10
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for IMX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 27.3
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score94
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence83.80
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 27.3
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 94.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1686
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$0.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See IMX chart with overlay More thesesAll IMX theses