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Thesis · thesis_mo3ptrp9_se1vlz
TIA

TIA

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T02:26:20Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.39%.

  • Closed -0.39% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4244
Entry high
$0.4295
Target 1
$0.4642
Target 2
$0.4870
Stop loss
$0.3970
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · noneMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
45.7
Neutral
ADX 14
24.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0200
5.23% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4100
Lower 0.3600
inside
SMA stack
200.3900
500.4100
2000.4100
TA Workspace · TIA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

TIA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.381170 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,338.8982 TIA
$1.43K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.01
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.4642
+1.24R$124.37(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.487
+2.01R$200.50(+2.01%)
Stop hit @ 0.397
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open TIA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 58.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 25.0, returned 19.38%, win rate 62.5%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 44.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 61.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3970, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
TIA Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. TIA cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
TIA
Price0.43
Timestamp1776479042162
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 79.05,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.03,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.45,
    "middle": 0.37,
    "lower": 0.28,
    "width": 46.97
  },
  "sma20": 0.37,
  "sma50": 0.33,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.4,
  "ema26": 0.37,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 82.92,
    "d": 90.34
  },
  "adx14": 61.3,
  "obv": 3095257.5439299997
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776479042160,
    "price": 0.42698478,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.44,
        "middle": 0.43,
        "lower": 0.42,
        "width": 5.81
      },
      "sma20": 0.43,
      "sma50": 0.42,
      "sma200": 0.39,
      "ema12": 0.43,
      "ema26": 0.43,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 18.59,
        "d": 33.18
      },
      "adx14": 26.23,
      "obv": 753406.7830499992
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776479042161,
    "price": 0.42698478,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.44,
        "middle": 0.41,
        "lower": 0.39,
        "width": 11.82
      },
      "sma20": 0.41,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.42,
      "ema26": 0.41,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 55.79,
        "d": 73.27
      },
      "adx14": 55.16,
      "obv": 1756372.2536500008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776479042161,
    "price": 0.42698478,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 79.05,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.45,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.28,
        "width": 46.97
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.4,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 82.92,
        "d": 90.34
      },
      "adx14": 61.3,
      "obv": 3095257.5439299997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776479042162,
    "price": 0.42698478,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 74.6,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.41,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 57.11
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.59,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.81,
        "d": 93.82
      },
      "adx14": 21.28,
      "obv": -20404021.213749997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest4231330.07
Price0.43
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.40
Take profit0.49
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.03
Warnings
  • RSI 79.0 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for TIA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 25.0
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score44.40
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence42.60
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 25.0
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 44.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score2.30
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score25.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.427
Funding rate
0.0011%
Open interest
$4.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See TIA chart with overlay More thesesAll TIA theses