EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mo3pynme_hyyk1x
GRASS

GRASS

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 91d ago · 2026-04-18T02:30:09Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.22%.

  • Closed -0.22% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3673
Entry high
$0.3709
Target 1
$0.3804
Target 2
$0.3873
Stop loss
$0.3600
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.40310.3880.37290.35780.34270.35917/13 21:007/15 03:007/16 09:007/17 15:007/18 21:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
41.3
Bearish
ADX 14
25.3
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
2.78% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4000
Lower 0.3400
inside
SMA stack
200.3700
500.3800
2000.4400
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.357840 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
10,989.011 GRASS
$4.06K
Leverage
0.41x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3804
+1.24R$124.18(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.3873
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.36
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 84.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 23.0, returned 15.44%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 77.2.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 29.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
GRASS Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. GRASS cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.37
Timestamp1776479271404
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.49,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.39,
    "middle": 0.36,
    "lower": 0.32,
    "width": 19.02
  },
  "sma20": 0.36,
  "sma50": 0.35,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.37,
  "ema26": 0.36,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 60.84,
    "d": 82.35
  },
  "adx14": 29.74,
  "obv": -400220.4923700002
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776479271402,
    "price": 0.3691,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.62,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.36,
        "width": 5.66
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.38,
      "sma200": 0.37,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 14.17,
        "d": 14.17
      },
      "adx14": 28.25,
      "obv": -39661.3698
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776479271403,
    "price": 0.3691,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.38,
        "lower": 0.36,
        "width": 5.92
      },
      "sma20": 0.38,
      "sma50": 0.37,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 9.66,
        "d": 6.44
      },
      "adx14": 21.95,
      "obv": 11575.277930000011
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776479271403,
    "price": 0.3691,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.32,
        "width": 19.02
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.84,
        "d": 82.35
      },
      "adx14": 29.74,
      "obv": -400220.4923700002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776479271404,
    "price": 0.3691,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.44,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 41.2
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 85.77,
        "d": 85.5
      },
      "adx14": 28.87,
      "obv": 28674.45008999961
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1560820.15
Price0.37
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.77
Leverage3
Stop loss0.36
Take profit0.39
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.47
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score77.20
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence69.80
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 77.2.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score30.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3691
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$1.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses