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Thesis · thesis_mo3s4ypm_zsj8vx
SEI

SEI

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T03:31:08Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/76
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.31%.

  • Closed -0.31% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0576
Entry high
$0.0582
Target 1
$0.0553
Target 2
$0.0537
Stop loss
$0.0600
SEI · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.0730.06790.06290.05780.05280.06355/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
42.7
Bearish
ADX 14
18.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0700
Lower 0.0600
inside
SMA stack
200.0700
500.0700
2000.0600
TA Workspace · SEI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SEI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.063610 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
47,619.0476 SEI
$2.76K
Leverage
0.28x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0553
+1.24R$123.81(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.0537
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.06
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SEI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 29.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 61.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 17.3, returned 8.11%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 48.8.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Short still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SEI Short: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. SEI cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SEI
Price0.06
Timestamp1776482867134
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.97,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.06,
    "middle": 0.06,
    "lower": 0.05,
    "width": 13.31
  },
  "sma20": 0.06,
  "sma50": 0.06,
  "sma200": 0.06,
  "ema12": 0.06,
  "ema26": 0.06,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 47.87,
    "d": 68.61
  },
  "adx14": 29.35,
  "obv": 5427100.130519997
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776482867133,
    "price": 0.05789745,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 34.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 2.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 8.29,
        "d": 13.39
      },
      "adx14": 36.15,
      "obv": 426423.2594500007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776482867133,
    "price": 0.05789745,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 5.35
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.09,
        "d": 2.91
      },
      "adx14": 22.91,
      "obv": 6137824.247460001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776482867134,
    "price": 0.05789745,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 13.31
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.06,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.87,
        "d": 68.61
      },
      "adx14": 29.35,
      "obv": 5427100.130519997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SEI",
    "timestamp": 1776482867134,
    "price": 0.05789745,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 16.96
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.12,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.68,
        "d": 82.45
      },
      "adx14": 19.73,
      "obv": -198474831.60875002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest2353923.64
Price0.06
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.18
Leverage2
Stop loss0.06
Take profit0.05
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.63
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SEI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread19.25
Dominant Conviction76.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction76.25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 17.3
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score48.80
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence52.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 17.3
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 48.8.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score19.80
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0579
Funding rate
-0.0051%
Open interest
$2.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SEI chart with overlay More thesesAll SEI theses