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Thesis · thesis_mo3tnjwu_66xny1
NEAR

NEAR

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T04:13:29Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.02%.

  • Closed +0.02% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.3996
Entry high
$1.4044
Target 1
$1.4154
Target 2
$1.4236
Stop loss
$1.39
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
68.7
Bullish
ADX 14
27.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.1500
5.06% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2.99
Lower 2.11
inside
SMA stack
202.55
502.50
2001.87
TA Workspace · NEAR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

NEAR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $2.9736 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
8,333.3333 NEAR
$11.68K
Leverage
1.17x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.802000
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.4154
+1.12R$111.67(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 1.4236
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 1.39
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open NEAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 102.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 20.0, returned 11.91%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 18.4, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $1.3900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
NEAR Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. NEAR cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
NEAR
Price1.40
Timestamp1776485454401
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 50.17,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.45,
    "middle": 1.41,
    "lower": 1.36,
    "width": 6.3
  },
  "sma20": 1.41,
  "sma50": 1.39,
  "sma200": 1.3,
  "ema12": 1.41,
  "ema26": 1.4,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 45.95,
    "d": 48.2
  },
  "adx14": 18.37,
  "obv": 1736620.5218684901
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami",
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776485454399,
    "price": 1.402,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.41,
        "middle": 1.4,
        "lower": 1.39,
        "width": 1.06
      },
      "sma20": 1.4,
      "sma50": 1.41,
      "sma200": 1.41,
      "ema12": 1.4,
      "ema26": 1.41,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.67,
        "d": 63.89
      },
      "adx14": 23.84,
      "obv": 136546.37465226
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776485454399,
    "price": 1.402,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.07,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.44,
        "middle": 1.41,
        "lower": 1.39,
        "width": 3.68
      },
      "sma20": 1.41,
      "sma50": 1.42,
      "sma200": 1.38,
      "ema12": 1.41,
      "ema26": 1.41,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.64,
        "d": 20.55
      },
      "adx14": 15.13,
      "obv": 549348.6274464597
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776485454400,
    "price": 1.402,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.45,
        "middle": 1.41,
        "lower": 1.36,
        "width": 6.3
      },
      "sma20": 1.41,
      "sma50": 1.39,
      "sma200": 1.3,
      "ema12": 1.41,
      "ema26": 1.4,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 45.95,
        "d": 48.2
      },
      "adx14": 18.37,
      "obv": 1736620.5218684901
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776485454401,
    "price": 1.402,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.49,
        "middle": 1.31,
        "lower": 1.13,
        "width": 28.04
      },
      "sma20": 1.31,
      "sma50": 1.3,
      "sma200": 1.68,
      "ema12": 1.37,
      "ema26": 1.33,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.9,
        "d": 88.5
      },
      "adx14": 30.79,
      "obv": -3711637.3928648746
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest39579194.71
Price1.40
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss1.39
Take profit1.42
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.86
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for NEAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 20.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence92.40
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 20.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.80
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.402
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$39.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See NEAR chart with overlay More thesesAll NEAR theses