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Thesis · thesis_mo3tqjn9_ah5nur
PNUT

PNUT

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 91d ago · 2026-04-18T04:15:53Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.29%.

  • Closed -1.29% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0623
Entry high
$0.0631
Target 1
$0.0660
Target 2
$0.0681
Stop loss
$0.0600
PNUT · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.06950.06190.05430.04670.03910.0417/13 22:007/15 04:007/16 10:007/17 16:007/18 22:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · death cross
RSI 14
35.7
Bearish
ADX 14
28.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0400
Lower 0.0400
inside
SMA stack
200.0400
500.0400
2000.0400
TA Workspace · PNUT
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PNUT · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.040950 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
37,037.037 PNUT
$2.32K
Leverage
0.23x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.066
+1.22R$122.22(+1.22%)
T2 hit @ 0.0681
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.06
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PNUT on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 97.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 21.3, returned 13.66%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 89.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 59.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
PNUT Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. PNUT cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PNUT
Price0.06
Timestamp1776485611223
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.08,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.08,
    "middle": 0.06,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 73.75
  },
  "sma20": 0.06,
  "sma50": 0.05,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.06,
  "ema26": 0.06,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 30.67,
    "d": 37.8
  },
  "adx14": 59.61,
  "obv": 415269.09282999864
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776485611221,
    "price": 0.0627,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 31.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.07,
        "middle": 0.07,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 10.23
      },
      "sma20": 0.07,
      "sma50": 0.07,
      "sma200": 0.07,
      "ema12": 0.07,
      "ema26": 0.07,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.58,
        "d": 10.3
      },
      "adx14": 16.3,
      "obv": -6229266.461189998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776485611222,
    "price": 0.0627,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.25,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.07,
        "middle": 0.07,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 9.73
      },
      "sma20": 0.07,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.07,
      "ema26": 0.07,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.58,
        "d": 23.72
      },
      "adx14": 29.05,
      "obv": 4588955.145809999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776485611222,
    "price": 0.0627,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.08,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 73.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 30.67,
        "d": 37.8
      },
      "adx14": 59.61,
      "obv": 415269.09282999864
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776485611223,
    "price": 0.0627,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 81
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.08,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 46.73,
        "d": 54.46
      },
      "adx14": 25.32,
      "obv": -95023537.69632997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest707045.52
Price0.06
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.85
Leverage2
Stop loss0.06
Take profit0.07
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.31
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PNUT; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked PNUT mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score89.70
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 89.7.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0.70
Note
Desk recently blocked PNUT mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score29.80
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0627
Funding rate
0.0001%
Open interest
$0.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bear_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bear_highvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See PNUT chart with overlay More thesesAll PNUT theses