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Thesis · thesis_mo3tzht4_tapgno
ETH

ETH

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T04:22:47Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.70%.

  • Closed -0.70% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,399.31
Entry high
$2,417.44
Target 1
$2,464.57
Target 2
$2,499.01
Stop loss
$2,363.05
ETH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2,533.142,345.452,157.761,970.071,782.371,864.55/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
31.2
Bearish
ADX 14
41.1
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.72
2.02% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2076
Lower 1832
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1859.60 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
2.2065 ETH
$5.31K
Leverage
0.53x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2464.5691
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 2499.0131
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 2363.05
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 102.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 18.0, returned 13.24%, win rate 71.4%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 27.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $2363.0500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane.

Final thesis
ETH Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane. ETH cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Price2408.37
Timestamp1776486028120
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 61.78,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 32.55,
    "signal": 29.81,
    "histogram": 2.74
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2436.95,
    "middle": 2363.05,
    "lower": 2289.14,
    "width": 6.25
  },
  "sma20": 2363.05,
  "sma50": 2297.85,
  "sma200": 2166.39,
  "ema12": 2385.08,
  "ema26": 2352.52,
  "atr14": 39.26,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 68.03,
    "d": 69.81
  },
  "adx14": 27.9,
  "obv": -22817.014048050034
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji",
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776486028118,
    "price": 2408.37103849,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -3.82,
        "signal": -2.35,
        "histogram": -1.47
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2429.45,
        "middle": 2418.9,
        "lower": 2408.36,
        "width": 0.87
      },
      "sma20": 2418.9,
      "sma50": 2427.16,
      "sma200": 2368.21,
      "ema12": 2415.64,
      "ema26": 2419.46,
      "atr14": 6.79,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 26.92,
        "d": 26.34
      },
      "adx14": 29.37,
      "obv": 3174.3013999400005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776486028119,
    "price": 2408.37103849,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 14.66,
        "signal": 19.3,
        "histogram": -4.64
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2476.41,
        "middle": 2414.81,
        "lower": 2353.21,
        "width": 5.1
      },
      "sma20": 2414.81,
      "sma50": 2368.97,
      "sma200": 2292.82,
      "ema12": 2415.82,
      "ema26": 2401.16,
      "atr14": 18.88,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 11.16,
        "d": 23.84
      },
      "adx14": 29.73,
      "obv": 48086.759121759984
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776486028119,
    "price": 2408.37103849,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 32.55,
        "signal": 29.81,
        "histogram": 2.74
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2436.95,
        "middle": 2363.05,
        "lower": 2289.14,
        "width": 6.25
      },
      "sma20": 2363.05,
      "sma50": 2297.85,
      "sma200": 2166.39,
      "ema12": 2385.08,
      "ema26": 2352.52,
      "atr14": 39.26,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 68.03,
        "d": 69.81
      },
      "adx14": 27.9,
      "obv": -22817.014048050034
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776486028120,
    "price": 2408.37103849,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 77.58,
        "signal": 54.05,
        "histogram": 23.54
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2461.93,
        "middle": 2211.69,
        "lower": 1961.46,
        "width": 22.63
      },
      "sma20": 2211.69,
      "sma50": 2131.28,
      "sma200": 2866.88,
      "ema12": 2303.14,
      "ema26": 2225.55,
      "atr14": 104.79,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.05,
        "d": 86.53
      },
      "adx14": 22.33,
      "obv": -576655.6631931796
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest982303118.25
Price2408.37
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss2363.05
Take profit2499.01
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.88
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread23.50
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.60
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.80
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score65.50
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,408.371
Funding rate
0.0080%
Open interest
$982.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses
ETH LONG thesis · NEUTRAL · -0.70% — EGOLDS