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Thesis · thesis_mo3u2ikb_fh1774
DOGE

DOGE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 92d ago · 2026-04-18T04:25:12Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.36%.

  • Closed -0.36% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0979
Entry high
$0.0991
Target 1
$0.1031
Target 2
$0.1060
Stop loss
$0.0947
DOGE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.10780.09810.08850.07880.06920.07247/14 20:007/16 02:007/17 08:007/18 14:007/19 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · death cross
RSI 14
45.6
Neutral
ADX 14
11.1
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0700
Lower 0.0700
inside
SMA stack
200.0700
500.0700
2000.0800
PatternsBullish HaramiBullish Marubozu
TA Workspace · DOGE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

DOGE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.072251 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,315.7895 DOGE
$2.59K
Leverage
0.26x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.97
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1031
+1.21R$121.05(+1.21%)
T2 hit @ 0.106
+1.97R$197.37(+1.97%)
Stop hit @ 0.0947
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open DOGE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 63.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 15.7, returned 8.54%, win rate 75.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 41.8.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 44.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0947, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
DOGE Long: selective command with guarded risk

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. DOGE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
DOGE
Timestamp1776486169613
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 57.8,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.1,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.09,
    "width": 10.3
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 39.95
  },
  "adx14": 44.39,
  "obv": 72812969.48114994
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "DOGE",
    "timestamp": 1776486169612,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 1.27
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 22.12
      },
      "adx14": 26.49,
      "obv": -5774208.267818264
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "DOGE",
    "timestamp": 1776486169612,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.5,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 4.1
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 7.52
      },
      "adx14": 19.94,
      "obv": -134517.27114416054
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "DOGE",
    "timestamp": 1776486169613,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 10.3
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 39.95
      },
      "adx14": 44.39,
      "obv": 72812969.48114994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "DOGE",
    "timestamp": 1776486169613,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 10.72
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 57.51
      },
      "adx14": 16.92,
      "obv": -2652668372.414194
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest121442853.13
Price0.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.10
Leverage2
Stop loss0.09
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.81
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for DOGE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.7
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score41.80
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence35.10
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.7
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 41.8.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1.40
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score24.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0985
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$121.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See DOGE chart with overlay More thesesAll DOGE theses