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Thesis · thesis_mo3u5pv2_8b8zbu
M

M

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T04:27:36Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.06% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -2.23%.

  • Closed -2.23% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$4.4048
Entry high
$4.458
Target 1
$4.8406
Target 2
$5.0914
Stop loss
$4.1014
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for M. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for M should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for M
TA Workspace · M
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

M · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66826.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
303.0303 BTC
$1.34K
Leverage
0.13x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 4.8406
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 5.0914
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 4.1014
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 88.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 24.1, returned 17.25%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 40.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 58.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $4.1014, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Recent evidence is still fresh. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
M Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Recent evidence is still fresh. Strategy command is defensive. M cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
M
Price4.43
Timestamp1776486317827
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 85.54,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.36,
    "signal": 0.26,
    "histogram": 0.09
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 4.5,
    "middle": 3.41,
    "lower": 2.32,
    "width": 63.78
  },
  "sma20": 3.41,
  "sma50": 3.02,
  "sma200": 2.39,
  "ema12": 3.8,
  "ema26": 3.44,
  "atr14": 0.22,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 86.56,
    "d": 85.47
  },
  "adx14": 58.63,
  "obv": 853560.0917299999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776486317826,
    "price": 4.43142,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.14,
        "signal": 0.14,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 4.72,
        "middle": 4.25,
        "lower": 3.77,
        "width": 22.32
      },
      "sma20": 4.25,
      "sma50": 3.97,
      "sma200": 3.6,
      "ema12": 4.34,
      "ema26": 4.2,
      "atr14": 0.12,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 48.02,
        "d": 59.44
      },
      "adx14": 52.22,
      "obv": 128184.91160000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776486317826,
    "price": 4.43142,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 82.73,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.2,
        "signal": 0.14,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 4.43,
        "middle": 3.92,
        "lower": 3.41,
        "width": 25.89
      },
      "sma20": 3.92,
      "sma50": 3.62,
      "sma200": 2.98,
      "ema12": 4.11,
      "ema26": 3.91,
      "atr14": 0.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.15,
        "d": 67.27
      },
      "adx14": 47.47,
      "obv": 379944.6605000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776486317827,
    "price": 4.43142,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 85.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.36,
        "signal": 0.26,
        "histogram": 0.09
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 4.5,
        "middle": 3.41,
        "lower": 2.32,
        "width": 63.78
      },
      "sma20": 3.41,
      "sma50": 3.02,
      "sma200": 2.39,
      "ema12": 3.8,
      "ema26": 3.44,
      "atr14": 0.22,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.56,
        "d": 85.47
      },
      "adx14": 58.63,
      "obv": 853560.0917299999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776486317827,
    "price": 4.43142,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 85.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.45,
        "signal": 0.31,
        "histogram": 0.13
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.88,
        "middle": 2.85,
        "lower": 1.82,
        "width": 72.44
      },
      "sma20": 2.85,
      "sma50": 2.15,
      "sma200": 1.85,
      "ema12": 3.22,
      "ema26": 2.77,
      "atr14": 0.35,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.51,
        "d": 86.14
      },
      "adx14": 63.81,
      "obv": 1768371.11541
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0
Open Interest0
Price4.43
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss4.10
Take profit5.09
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.45
Warnings
  • RSI 85.5 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for M; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score40.50
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence45
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 40.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0.30
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score11.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$4.4314
Funding rate
0.0000%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See M chart with overlay More thesesAll M theses