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Thesis · thesis_mo42epd6_tn96bm
ETH

ETH

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T08:18:38Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.13%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -1.13% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,386.77
Entry high
$2,397.17
Target 1
$2,424.22
Target 2
$2,443.99
Stop loss
$2,365.96
ETH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2,475.362,302.82,130.251,957.691,785.131,868.95/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
31.9
Bearish
ADX 14
41.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.26
1.99% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2075
Lower 1833
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1868.50 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3.8447 ETH
$9.20K
Leverage
0.92x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2424.2224
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 2443.99
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 2365.96
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • The model layer still leans bullish.
  • Candidate quality is 94.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 18.0, returned 13.24%, win rate 71.4%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 27.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $2365.9600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ETH Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. ETH cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Price2391.97
Timestamp1776500174791
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.14,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 30.43,
    "signal": 29.88,
    "histogram": 0.55
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2438.72,
    "middle": 2365.96,
    "lower": 2293.19,
    "width": 6.15
  },
  "sma20": 2365.96,
  "sma50": 2301.88,
  "sma200": 2167.15,
  "ema12": 2385.58,
  "ema26": 2355.15,
  "atr14": 37.81,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 58.92,
    "d": 63.73
  },
  "adx14": 27.76,
  "obv": -35349.15759964002
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776500174790,
    "price": 2391.97,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 26.44,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -4.82,
        "signal": -3.76,
        "histogram": -1.07
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2417.74,
        "middle": 2407.61,
        "lower": 2397.49,
        "width": 0.84
      },
      "sma20": 2407.61,
      "sma50": 2418.1,
      "sma200": 2372.06,
      "ema12": 2404.96,
      "ema26": 2409.79,
      "atr14": 5.09,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.8,
        "d": 9.57
      },
      "adx14": 35.94,
      "obv": 3989.5775321700025
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776500174790,
    "price": 2391.97,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 7.7,
        "signal": 13.92,
        "histogram": -6.22
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2455.06,
        "middle": 2423.98,
        "lower": 2392.9,
        "width": 2.56
      },
      "sma20": 2423.98,
      "sma50": 2372.78,
      "sma200": 2296.94,
      "ema12": 2409.51,
      "ema26": 2401.81,
      "atr14": 16.53,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.64,
        "d": 9.23
      },
      "adx14": 24.87,
      "obv": 48283.606124049984
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776500174791,
    "price": 2391.97,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.14,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 30.43,
        "signal": 29.88,
        "histogram": 0.55
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2438.72,
        "middle": 2365.96,
        "lower": 2293.19,
        "width": 6.15
      },
      "sma20": 2365.96,
      "sma50": 2301.88,
      "sma200": 2167.15,
      "ema12": 2385.58,
      "ema26": 2355.15,
      "atr14": 37.81,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.92,
        "d": 63.73
      },
      "adx14": 27.76,
      "obv": -35349.15759964002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776500174791,
    "price": 2391.97,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.43,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 76.28,
        "signal": 53.78,
        "histogram": 22.49
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2458.62,
        "middle": 2210.87,
        "lower": 1963.13,
        "width": 22.41
      },
      "sma20": 2210.87,
      "sma50": 2130.95,
      "sma200": 2866.8,
      "ema12": 2300.61,
      "ema26": 2224.34,
      "atr14": 105.55,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.35,
        "d": 85.3
      },
      "adx14": 22.33,
      "obv": -578130.6653886697
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest961621108.50
Price2391.97
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss2365.96
Take profit2443.99
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.09
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread23.50
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.60
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.80
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score37.40
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,391.97
Funding rate
0.0067%
Open interest
$961.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses