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Thesis · thesis_mo48tvl3_1j92te
PNUT

PNUT

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T11:18:21Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.42%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -1.42% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0607
Entry high
$0.0610
Target 1
$0.0619
Target 2
$0.0626
Stop loss
$0.0600
PNUT · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.06340.05890.05450.050.04550.0515/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
47.6
Neutral
ADX 14
16.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0600
Lower 0.0500
inside
SMA stack
200.0500
500.0500
2000.0600
TA Workspace · PNUT
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PNUT · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.050970 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
117,647.0588 PNUT
$7.16K
Leverage
0.72x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.06
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0619
+1.24R$123.53(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.0626
+2.06R$205.88(+2.06%)
Stop hit @ 0.06
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PNUT on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 79.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 34.1, returned 47.88%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 70.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 58.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
PNUT Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. PNUT cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PNUT
Price0.06
Timestamp1776510918179
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.56,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.08,
    "middle": 0.06,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 69.28
  },
  "sma20": 0.06,
  "sma50": 0.05,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.06,
  "ema26": 0.06,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 22.77,
    "d": 30.86
  },
  "adx14": 58.81,
  "obv": 584009.8481199993
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776510918178,
    "price": 0.06087,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 7.18
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.06,
      "sma200": 0.07,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.41,
        "d": 3.37
      },
      "adx14": 20.29,
      "obv": -6998074.8198299995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776510918178,
    "price": 0.06087,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.68,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.07,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.06,
        "width": 13.19
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.07,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.1,
        "d": 11.4
      },
      "adx14": 21.09,
      "obv": 4233018.472189999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776510918179,
    "price": 0.06087,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.08,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 69.28
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.06,
      "ema26": 0.06,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 22.77,
        "d": 30.86
      },
      "adx14": 58.81,
      "obv": 584009.8481199993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776510918179,
    "price": 0.06087,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 79.76
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.08,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.11,
        "d": 53.25
      },
      "adx14": 24.97,
      "obv": -96060805.67284997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest696301.43
Price0.06
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.06
Take profit0.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.43
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PNUT; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA still leans with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score70
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence68.20
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA still leans with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 70.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0.70
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score37.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0609
Funding rate
-0.0031%
Open interest
$0.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See PNUT chart with overlay More thesesAll PNUT theses