Thesis · thesis_mo4jjeo7_1f1tcz

APE

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 45d ago · 2026-04-18T16:18:14Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.06%

peak +0.03% · MAE -0.06%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -5.59%.

Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
Was up +3.06% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
Max adverse excursion hit -5.59% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.1045

Entry high

$0.1057

Target 1

$0.1114

Target 2

$0.1153

Stop loss

$0.1000

APE · 1h candles · last 121

Entry / Target / Stop overlaid

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

55.8

Bullish

ADX 14

27.6

Trending

ATR 14

0.0100

6.72% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.1500

Lower 0.1400

inside

SMA stack

200.1500

500.1400

2000.1500

TA Workspace · APE

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.148840 · max 5x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 5x)

Trade plan

Position size

19,607.8431 APE

$2.06K

Leverage

0.21x

≤ 5x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.00

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.1114

+1.24R$123.53(+1.24%)

T2 hit @ 0.1153

+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)

Stop hit @ 0.1

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
Candidate quality is 64.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
EMA PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 12.6, returned 20.52%, win rate 62.5%.
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Bear case

ADX is near 52.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.1000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

Final thesis

APE Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. APE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

APE

Price0.11

Timestamp1776528948477

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 64.47,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.09,
    "width": 17.42
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.09,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 24.24,
    "d": 37.23
  },
  "adx14": 52.76,
  "obv": 1064377.6162419512
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776528948476,
    "price": 0.1051,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.13,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 9.04
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 6.02,
        "d": 4.51
      },
      "adx14": 40.08,
      "obv": -286270.9692276196
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776528948476,
    "price": 0.1051,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 8.41
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 11.66,
        "d": 10.95
      },
      "adx14": 37.44,
      "obv": -481515.0179036802
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Piercing Line",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776528948477,
    "price": 0.1051,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 17.42
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 24.24,
        "d": 37.23
      },
      "adx14": 52.76,
      "obv": 1064377.6162419512
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776528948477,
    "price": 0.1051,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 29.87
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 48.02,
        "d": 77.89
      },
      "adx14": 22.1,
      "obv": -20983576.427740175
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate-0.00

Open Interest1003378.35

Price0.11

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

medium

Max position %2.57

Leverage2

Stop loss0.10

Take profit0.12

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %4.85

Warnings

ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 12.6
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence89.80

Reasons

EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 12.6
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score0.70

Note

Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score17.20

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

fragile

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.1051

Funding rate

-0.1626%

Open interest

$1.0M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

EMA_PULLBACK · latest_asset

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

fragile

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See APE chart with overlay More theses All APE theses