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Thesis · thesis_mo5peurv_f80dni
IMX

IMX

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 45d ago · 2026-04-19T11:50:21Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.10%
peak +0.10% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +9.66%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +9.66% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Survived a -3.24% drawdown before working — the stop was wide enough to absorb noise without invalidating the thesis.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1584
Entry high
$0.1604
Target 1
$0.1687
Target 2
$0.1744
Stop loss
$0.1519
IMX · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.17580.16810.16030.15260.14490.15015/29 04:005/30 10:005/31 16:006/1 22:006/3 04:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
47.2
Neutral
ADX 14
13.3
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0100
6.40% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1700
Lower 0.1500
inside
SMA stack
200.1600
500.1600
2000.1700
TA Workspace · IMX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

IMX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.155210 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
13,333.3333 IMX
$2.13K
Leverage
0.21x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1687
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1744
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.1519
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open IMX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 110.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 19.9, returned 11.93%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 47.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1519, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
IMX Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. IMX cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
IMX
Price0.16
Timestamp1776599229183
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 45.79,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.18,
    "middle": 0.17,
    "lower": 0.16,
    "width": 10.49
  },
  "sma20": 0.17,
  "sma50": 0.15,
  "sma200": 0.15,
  "ema12": 0.16,
  "ema26": 0.16,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 5.67,
    "d": 4.29
  },
  "adx14": 47.78,
  "obv": 123540.12338659995
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776599229181,
    "price": 0.1594,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.16,
        "lower": 0.16,
        "width": 2.22
      },
      "sma20": 0.16,
      "sma50": 0.16,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.16,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 67.65,
        "d": 87.7
      },
      "adx14": 22.5,
      "obv": -219782.17439279993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776599229182,
    "price": 0.1594,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 41.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.17,
        "middle": 0.16,
        "lower": 0.16,
        "width": 6.09
      },
      "sma20": 0.16,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.16,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.82,
        "d": 14.22
      },
      "adx14": 30.81,
      "obv": 558044.8105897899
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776599229182,
    "price": 0.1594,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.79,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.16,
        "width": 10.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.16,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.67,
        "d": 4.29
      },
      "adx14": 47.78,
      "obv": 123540.12338659995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776599229183,
    "price": 0.1594,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.17,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 31.48
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.29,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 41.08,
        "d": 48.51
      },
      "adx14": 20.75,
      "obv": -13762260.869817307
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest657188.89
Price0.16
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.65
Leverage2
Stop loss0.15
Take profit0.17
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.71
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for IMX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA still leans with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.90
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA still leans with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-7.50
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score50.90
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1594
Funding rate
-0.0009%
Open interest
$0.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See IMX chart with overlay More thesesAll IMX theses