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Thesis · thesis_mo5phxjw_9pvxr3
AVAX

AVAX

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 90d ago · 2026-04-19T11:52:45Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.05%.

  • Closed -0.05% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.2037
Entry high
$9.2692
Target 1
$9.0539
Target 2
$8.942
Stop loss
$9.40
AVAX · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
9.5538.71177.87047.02916.18786.58217/13 21:007/15 03:007/16 09:007/17 15:007/18 21:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · none
RSI 14
50.5
Neutral
ADX 14
11.8
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.1000
1.52% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 6.72
Lower 6.45
inside
SMA stack
206.58
506.58
2006.56
TA Workspace · AVAX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

AVAX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $6.5849 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
611.4338 AVAX
$5.65K
Leverage
0.56x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.0539
+1.12R$111.62(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 8.942
+1.80R$180.04(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 9.4
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open AVAX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 21.1, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $9.4000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 94.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 27.8, returned 23.86%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
AVAX Short: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. AVAX cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
AVAX
Price9.24
Timestamp1776599423146
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 39.5,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.04,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": -0.06
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.93,
    "middle": 9.55,
    "lower": 9.17,
    "width": 8.03
  },
  "sma20": 9.55,
  "sma50": 9.4,
  "sma200": 9.25,
  "ema12": 9.42,
  "ema26": 9.46,
  "atr14": 0.18,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 11.96,
    "d": 11.47
  },
  "adx14": 21.13,
  "obv": -50622.7617016399
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776599423145,
    "price": 9.2364369,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.26,
        "middle": 9.2,
        "lower": 9.15,
        "width": 1.23
      },
      "sma20": 9.2,
      "sma50": 9.26,
      "sma200": 9.53,
      "ema12": 9.22,
      "ema26": 9.23,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.82,
        "d": 83.87
      },
      "adx14": 29.48,
      "obv": -182946.09587001003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776599423145,
    "price": 9.2364369,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.94,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.08,
        "signal": -0.08,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.45,
        "middle": 9.31,
        "lower": 9.16,
        "width": 3.16
      },
      "sma20": 9.31,
      "sma50": 9.53,
      "sma200": 9.39,
      "ema12": 9.26,
      "ema26": 9.34,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 38.01,
        "d": 25.31
      },
      "adx14": 50.35,
      "obv": 19699.19155222008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776599423146,
    "price": 9.2364369,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.5,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.04,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": -0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.93,
        "middle": 9.55,
        "lower": 9.17,
        "width": 8.03
      },
      "sma20": 9.55,
      "sma50": 9.4,
      "sma200": 9.25,
      "ema12": 9.42,
      "ema26": 9.46,
      "atr14": 0.18,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 11.96,
        "d": 11.47
      },
      "adx14": 21.13,
      "obv": -50622.7617016399
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776599423146,
    "price": 9.2364369,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.79,
        "middle": 9.24,
        "lower": 8.68,
        "width": 12.01
      },
      "sma20": 9.24,
      "sma50": 9.31,
      "sma200": 13.4,
      "ema12": 9.37,
      "ema26": 9.31,
      "atr14": 0.5,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 49.45,
        "d": 62.29
      },
      "adx14": 10.09,
      "obv": -5699197.515534769
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest51063833.54
Price9.24
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss9.40
Take profit8.94
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.77
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for AVAX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 27.8
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84.20
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 27.8
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.80
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score59.10
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.2364
Funding rate
-0.0156%
Open interest
$51.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See AVAX chart with overlay More thesesAll AVAX theses