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Thesis · thesis_mo5pvid1_26fcus
PENDLE

PENDLE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 45d ago · 2026-04-19T12:03:21Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
70/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.77%.

  • Closed -1.77% at conviction 70/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.329
Entry high
$1.345
Target 1
$1.43
Target 2
$1.487
Stop loss
$1.262
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
55.2
Bullish
ADX 14
23.8
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0600
4.16% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1.47
Lower 1.29
inside
SMA stack
201.38
501.47
2001.78
TA Workspace · PENDLE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PENDLE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1.4410 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1,333.3333 PENDLE
$1.78K
Leverage
0.18x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.43
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.487
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1.262
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PENDLE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 70.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 24.7, returned 30.46%, win rate 75.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 80.6.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 35.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1.2620, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
PENDLE Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. PENDLE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PENDLE
Price1.34
Timestamp1776600056849
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.78,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.05,
    "signal": 0.07,
    "histogram": -0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.49,
    "middle": 1.34,
    "lower": 1.19,
    "width": 22.17
  },
  "sma20": 1.34,
  "sma50": 1.18,
  "sma200": 1.16,
  "ema12": 1.34,
  "ema26": 1.29,
  "atr14": 0.05,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 21.72,
    "d": 30.38
  },
  "adx14": 35.15,
  "obv": 622814.07784
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1776600056848,
    "price": 1.337,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.26,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.34,
        "middle": 1.31,
        "lower": 1.29,
        "width": 3.8
      },
      "sma20": 1.31,
      "sma50": 1.33,
      "sma200": 1.38,
      "ema12": 1.32,
      "ema26": 1.32,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 91.49,
        "d": 88.65
      },
      "adx14": 28.1,
      "obv": -306569.10774
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1776600056848,
    "price": 1.337,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.02,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.4,
        "middle": 1.34,
        "lower": 1.29,
        "width": 8.28
      },
      "sma20": 1.34,
      "sma50": 1.38,
      "sma200": 1.18,
      "ema12": 1.33,
      "ema26": 1.35,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 53.75,
        "d": 37.67
      },
      "adx14": 16.95,
      "obv": 697492.3980500003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1776600056849,
    "price": 1.337,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.05,
        "signal": 0.07,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.49,
        "middle": 1.34,
        "lower": 1.19,
        "width": 22.17
      },
      "sma20": 1.34,
      "sma50": 1.18,
      "sma200": 1.16,
      "ema12": 1.34,
      "ema26": 1.29,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 21.72,
        "d": 30.38
      },
      "adx14": 35.15,
      "obv": 622814.07784
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1776600056849,
    "price": 1.337,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.37,
        "middle": 1.13,
        "lower": 0.89,
        "width": 42.39
      },
      "sma20": 1.13,
      "sma50": 1.2,
      "sma200": 2.06,
      "ema12": 1.21,
      "ema26": 1.18,
      "atr14": 0.1,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.79,
        "d": 78.29
      },
      "adx14": 25.46,
      "obv": -357637.3127199991
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest5796265.49
Price1.34
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.20
Leverage2
Stop loss1.26
Take profit1.49
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %5.61
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PENDLE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread18.50
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.7
  • LONG desk bias has 74 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score80.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence75
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.7
  • LONG desk bias has 74 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 80.6.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.40
Note
Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score17
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.337
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$5.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See PENDLE chart with overlay More thesesAll PENDLE theses