Thesis · thesis_mo5vhtqb_dniq4v

CRV

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-19T14:41:08Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.01%

peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.89%.

Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
Max adverse excursion hit -0.89% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.2307

Entry high

$0.2311

Target 1

$0.2320

Target 2

$0.2327

Stop loss

$0.2300

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

44.1

Bearish

ADX 14

31.2

Trending

ATR 14

0.0100

4.84% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.2200

Lower 0.2000

inside

SMA stack

200.2100

500.2100

2000.2400

PatternsBearish Engulfing

TA Workspace · CRV

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CRV · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.208200 · max 10x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 10x)

Trade plan

Position size

111,111.1111 CRV

$25.66K

Leverage

2.57x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

$0.185900

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.00

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.232

+1.22R$122.22(+1.22%)

T2 hit @ 0.2327

+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)

Stop hit @ 0.23

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open CRV on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
Candidate quality is 97.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 16.3, returned 8.50%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 88.2.

Bear case

ADX is near 31.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.2300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

CRV Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. CRV cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

CRV

Price0.23

Timestamp1776609475137

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 52.66,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.24,
    "middle": 0.23,
    "lower": 0.22,
    "width": 8.11
  },
  "sma20": 0.23,
  "sma50": 0.22,
  "sma200": 0.22,
  "ema12": 0.23,
  "ema26": 0.23,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 32.68,
    "d": 23.53
  },
  "adx14": 31,
  "obv": -8952245.172761675
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776609475134,
    "price": 0.2308946,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 4.34
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 22.31,
        "d": 41.77
      },
      "adx14": 39.59,
      "obv": 769305.0083332302
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776609475135,
    "price": 0.2308946,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.23,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 3.91
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 56.98,
        "d": 60.32
      },
      "adx14": 29.07,
      "obv": -1215540.6641841503
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776609475136,
    "price": 0.2308946,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.66,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 8.11
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.22,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 32.68,
        "d": 23.53
      },
      "adx14": 31,
      "obv": -8952245.172761675
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776609475137,
    "price": 0.2308946,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 15.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.37,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.22,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 67.34,
        "d": 72.41
      },
      "adx14": 13.49,
      "obv": -126452037.87192604
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate-0.00

Open Interest8074057.07

Price0.23

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss0.23

Take profit0.23

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %0.40

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for CRV; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
replay remains supportive with score 16.3
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score88.20

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence82.90

Reasons

RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
replay remains supportive with score 16.3
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 88.2.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score1.40

Note

Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score29.90

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.2309

Funding rate

-0.0084%

Open interest

$8.1M

Macro regime

disinflation_range_bear_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_range_bear_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See CRV chart with overlay More theses All CRV theses