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Thesis · thesis_mo5vsxxc_y1vrog
KAITO

KAITO

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-19T14:49:47Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
73/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.83%.

  • Closed -0.83% at conviction 73/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4490
Entry high
$0.4535
Target 1
$0.4639
Target 2
$0.4716
Stop loss
$0.4400
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · death cross
RSI 14
52.5
Neutral
ADX 14
15.5
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.15% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4700
Lower 0.4500
inside
SMA stack
200.4600
500.4700
2000.4800
TA Workspace · KAITO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

KAITO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.463790 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
8,888.8889 KAITO
$4.01K
Leverage
0.40x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.81
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.4639
+1.12R$112.44(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.4716
+1.81R$180.89(+1.81%)
Stop hit @ 0.44
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open KAITO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 91.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 21.3, returned 20.13%, win rate 75.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 73.9.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.4, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
KAITO Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. KAITO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
KAITO
Price0.45
Timestamp1776609983231
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 46.28,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": -0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.5,
    "middle": 0.47,
    "lower": 0.44,
    "width": 14.38
  },
  "sma20": 0.47,
  "sma50": 0.44,
  "sma200": 0.41,
  "ema12": 0.46,
  "ema26": 0.46,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 16.7,
    "d": 21.27
  },
  "adx14": 24.44,
  "obv": 110461.89278999998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776609983224,
    "price": 0.4512856,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 33.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.46,
        "middle": 0.46,
        "lower": 0.45,
        "width": 1.89
      },
      "sma20": 0.46,
      "sma50": 0.45,
      "sma200": 0.47,
      "ema12": 0.45,
      "ema26": 0.45,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20.82,
        "d": 6.94
      },
      "adx14": 22.37,
      "obv": 3075.830050000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776609983225,
    "price": 0.4512856,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 41.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.46,
        "middle": 0.45,
        "lower": 0.44,
        "width": 5.05
      },
      "sma20": 0.45,
      "sma50": 0.47,
      "sma200": 0.44,
      "ema12": 0.45,
      "ema26": 0.46,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 36.07,
        "d": 56.79
      },
      "adx14": 22.62,
      "obv": 13443.47092
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776609983226,
    "price": 0.4512856,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.28,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.5,
        "middle": 0.47,
        "lower": 0.44,
        "width": 14.38
      },
      "sma20": 0.47,
      "sma50": 0.44,
      "sma200": 0.41,
      "ema12": 0.46,
      "ema26": 0.46,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 16.7,
        "d": 21.27
      },
      "adx14": 24.44,
      "obv": 110461.89278999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776609983231,
    "price": 0.4512856,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.43,
        "lower": 0.38,
        "width": 23.95
      },
      "sma20": 0.43,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.6,
      "ema12": 0.44,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 56.29,
        "d": 63.82
      },
      "adx14": 37.39,
      "obv": 603540.4743199995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2062818.98
Price0.45
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.75
Leverage2
Stop loss0.44
Take profit0.47
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.50
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for KAITO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread20.50
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score73.90
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence68.20
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 73.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.10
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score43.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4513
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$2.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See KAITO chart with overlay More thesesAll KAITO theses