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Thesis · thesis_mo5yptr0_tl1lx2
APE

APE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-19T16:10:51Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.86%.

  • Closed -1.86% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1028
Entry high
$0.1040
Target 1
$0.1076
Target 2
$0.1102
Stop loss
$0.1000
APE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.16060.14470.12890.1130.09710.15085/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
58.2
Bullish
ADX 14
27.6
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
6.63% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1400
2000.1500
TA Workspace · APE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.151050 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
29,411.7647 APE
$3.04K
Leverage
0.30x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1076
+1.24R$123.53(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1102
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.1
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 83.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 12.6, returned 20.52%, win rate 62.5%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 52.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
APE Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. APE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
APE
Price0.10
Timestamp1776614838167
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.18,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.1,
    "width": 8.78
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.09,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 13.59,
    "d": 11.11
  },
  "adx14": 52.15,
  "obv": -196990.84389302938
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776614838165,
    "price": 0.1034,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.99,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 2.91
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.11,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.75,
        "d": 28.62
      },
      "adx14": 15.48,
      "obv": -684957.8777725002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776614838167,
    "price": 0.1034,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 7.52
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.19,
        "d": 43.53
      },
      "adx14": 32.01,
      "obv": -614614.7335759499
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776614838167,
    "price": 0.1034,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 8.78
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 13.59,
        "d": 11.11
      },
      "adx14": 52.15,
      "obv": -196990.84389302938
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776614838167,
    "price": 0.1034,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.77,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 32
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 44.49,
        "d": 63.18
      },
      "adx14": 24.64,
      "obv": -23144975.081848722
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1585593.88
Price0.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.36
Leverage2
Stop loss0.10
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.29
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score91.90
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84.50
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-4.70
Note
Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score34.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1034
Funding rate
-0.0041%
Open interest
$1.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See APE chart with overlay More thesesAll APE theses