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Thesis · thesis_mo61wri6_6d7ed0
GRASS

GRASS

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-19T17:40:13Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.05% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.61%.

  • Closed -1.61% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3246
Entry high
$0.3285
Target 1
$0.3098
Target 2
$0.2995
Stop loss
$0.3415
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.55070.48490.41910.35330.28750.50975/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
58.0
Bullish
ADX 14
25.8
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
5.89% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.5100
Lower 0.4400
above upper
SMA stack
200.4800
500.4900
2000.4000
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.509480 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,688.9632 GRASS
$2.18K
Leverage
0.22x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.81
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3098
+1.12R$112.04(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.2995
+1.81R$180.94(+1.81%)
Stop hit @ 0.3415
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 22.2, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3415, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans heavy.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 71.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 22.6, returned 15.44%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 75.8.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
GRASS Short: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. GRASS cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.33
Timestamp1776620241188
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 36.77,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.39,
    "middle": 0.36,
    "lower": 0.32,
    "width": 20.15
  },
  "sma20": 0.36,
  "sma50": 0.35,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.34,
  "ema26": 0.35,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 1.02,
    "d": 8.57
  },
  "adx14": 22.19,
  "obv": -385432.3035399998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776620241187,
    "price": 0.32652667,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 27.63,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.35,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.33,
        "width": 4.88
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.98,
        "d": 34.33
      },
      "adx14": 23.92,
      "obv": -74118.95379999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 9,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776620241187,
    "price": 0.32652667,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 35.38,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.35,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.33,
        "width": 4.53
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.98,
        "d": 43.08
      },
      "adx14": 21.77,
      "obv": -54427.22276999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776620241188,
    "price": 0.32652667,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.77,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.32,
        "width": 20.15
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 1.02,
        "d": 8.57
      },
      "adx14": 22.19,
      "obv": -385432.3035399998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776620241188,
    "price": 0.32652667,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.26,
        "width": 37.58
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.23,
        "d": 65.89
      },
      "adx14": 26.86,
      "obv": -270745.14310000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1447618.26
Price0.33
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.70
Leverage2
Stop loss0.34
Take profit0.30
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %4.59
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.6
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score75.80
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence72.40
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.6
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 75.8.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.80
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score28.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3265
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$1.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses