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Thesis · thesis_mo6672u8_vely5u
ZEC

ZEC

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-19T19:40:16Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.14%.

  • Closed -0.14% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$302.7724
Entry high
$306.4276
Target 1
$284.5622
Target 2
$272.281
Stop loss
$322.555
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
60.9
Bullish
ADX 14
28.3
Trending
ATR 14
30.56
5.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 623.77
Lower 519.83
inside
SMA stack
20571.80
50557.68
200550.27
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · ZEC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ZEC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $618.6000 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
5.5695 ZEC
$1.70K
Leverage
0.17x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 284.5622
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 272.281
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 322.555
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ZEC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 12.0, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $322.5550, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1h RSI is washed out inside a weak trend.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 125.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 23.7, returned 15.83%, win rate 85.7%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is fully aligned. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane.

Final thesis
ZEC Short: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is fully aligned. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane. ZEC cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ZEC
Price304.60
Timestamp1776627446129
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 33.77,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -7.73,
    "signal": -6.68,
    "histogram": -1.06
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 349.06,
    "middle": 330.35,
    "lower": 311.63,
    "width": 11.33
  },
  "sma20": 330.35,
  "sma50": 347.8,
  "sma200": 276.68,
  "ema12": 324.97,
  "ema26": 332.7,
  "atr14": 11.97,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 7.87,
    "d": 21.2
  },
  "adx14": 11.99,
  "obv": 69523.80642223
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "below_lower",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6,
  "bearScore": 9,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776627446126,
    "price": 304.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 28.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -6.37,
        "signal": -5.39,
        "histogram": -0.98
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 334.66,
        "middle": 315.23,
        "lower": 295.8,
        "width": 12.33
      },
      "sma20": 315.23,
      "sma50": 322.97,
      "sma200": 326.82,
      "ema12": 309.03,
      "ema26": 315.39,
      "atr14": 3.41,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 17.3,
        "d": 19.41
      },
      "adx14": 42.7,
      "obv": -7893.993709219999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776627446127,
    "price": 304.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 29.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -4.4,
        "signal": -1.95,
        "histogram": -2.46
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 339.86,
        "middle": 322.44,
        "lower": 305.02,
        "width": 10.81
      },
      "sma20": 322.44,
      "sma50": 326.42,
      "sma200": 348.71,
      "ema12": 317.61,
      "ema26": 322.01,
      "atr14": 5.59,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 11.56,
        "d": 8.99
      },
      "adx14": 22.85,
      "obv": -23314.935690810005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776627446128,
    "price": 304.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 33.77,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -7.73,
        "signal": -6.68,
        "histogram": -1.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 349.06,
        "middle": 330.35,
        "lower": 311.63,
        "width": 11.33
      },
      "sma20": 330.35,
      "sma50": 347.8,
      "sma200": 276.68,
      "ema12": 324.97,
      "ema26": 332.7,
      "atr14": 11.97,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.87,
        "d": 21.2
      },
      "adx14": 11.99,
      "obv": 69523.80642223
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 9,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776627446129,
    "price": 304.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.79,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 23.07,
        "signal": 27.22,
        "histogram": -4.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 411.82,
        "middle": 310.57,
        "lower": 209.32,
        "width": 65.2
      },
      "sma20": 310.57,
      "sma50": 259.09,
      "sma200": 346.31,
      "ema12": 326.44,
      "ema26": 303.37,
      "atr14": 28.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 39.82,
        "d": 51.47
      },
      "adx14": 34.45,
      "obv": 1799788.0145118
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest85210005.44
Price304.60
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss322.56
Take profit272.28
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %5.89
Warnings
  • ADX 12.0 indicates weak trend.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ZEC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab strongly supports letting AI command this setup.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.7
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence94.50
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.7
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.60
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
elite
Score78.20
Note
Strategy lab strongly supports letting AI command this setup.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$304.6
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$85.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
elite
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ZEC chart with overlay More thesesAll ZEC theses