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Thesis · thesis_mo6ak8p1_jg0ela
M

M

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-19T21:42:28Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +1.27%.

  • Ran to +2.32% at peak but closed +1.27% — gave back 1.05pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.4054
Entry high
$3.4466
Target 1
$3.7062
Target 2
$3.878
Stop loss
$3.20
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for M. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for M should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for M
TA Workspace · M
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

M · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66899.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
442.4779 BTC
$1.52K
Leverage
0.15x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 3.7062
+1.24R$123.98(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 3.878
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 3.2
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 69.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 24.1, returned 17.25%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 46.9.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 34.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $3.2000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
M Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive. M cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
M
Price3.43
Timestamp1776634780232
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 48.6,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.06,
    "signal": 0.15,
    "histogram": -0.09
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 4.44,
    "middle": 3.74,
    "lower": 3.05,
    "width": 37.26
  },
  "sma20": 3.74,
  "sma50": 3.2,
  "sma200": 2.49,
  "ema12": 3.56,
  "ema26": 3.5,
  "atr14": 0.39,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 34.03,
    "d": 36.06
  },
  "adx14": 34.24,
  "obv": 621247.2881799998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776634780229,
    "price": 3.426,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.61,
        "middle": 3.49,
        "lower": 3.37,
        "width": 6.92
      },
      "sma20": 3.49,
      "sma50": 3.46,
      "sma200": 3.81,
      "ema12": 3.47,
      "ema26": 3.48,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 11.09,
        "d": 4.13
      },
      "adx14": 13.9,
      "obv": -108524.75147000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776634780230,
    "price": 3.426,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.21,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.07,
        "signal": -0.1,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.76,
        "middle": 3.47,
        "lower": 3.17,
        "width": 17.1
      },
      "sma20": 3.47,
      "sma50": 3.8,
      "sma200": 3.2,
      "ema12": 3.47,
      "ema26": 3.54,
      "atr14": 0.22,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.26,
        "d": 50.33
      },
      "adx14": 18.7,
      "obv": 268659.5862200001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776634780231,
    "price": 3.426,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.6,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": 0.15,
        "histogram": -0.09
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 4.44,
        "middle": 3.74,
        "lower": 3.05,
        "width": 37.26
      },
      "sma20": 3.74,
      "sma50": 3.2,
      "sma200": 2.49,
      "ema12": 3.56,
      "ema26": 3.5,
      "atr14": 0.39,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 34.03,
        "d": 36.06
      },
      "adx14": 34.24,
      "obv": 621247.2881799998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776634780232,
    "price": 3.426,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.44,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.37,
        "signal": 0.31,
        "histogram": 0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.67,
        "middle": 2.86,
        "lower": 2.05,
        "width": 56.58
      },
      "sma20": 2.86,
      "sma50": 2.17,
      "sma200": 1.85,
      "ema12": 3.13,
      "ema26": 2.76,
      "atr14": 0.46,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 41.76,
        "d": 58.96
      },
      "adx14": 63.56,
      "obv": 1341495.0084600006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0
Open Interest0
Price3.43
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
high
Max position %1.70
Leverage1
Stop loss3.20
Take profit3.88
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.60
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for M; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked M mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score46.90
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence49.20
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 46.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0.30
Note
Desk recently blocked M mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score11.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.426
Funding rate
0.0000%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See M chart with overlay More thesesAll M theses