Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-19T22:46:54Z · expires 2026-04-22
Thesis played out — closed +1.45%.
- Ran to +5.86% at peak but closed +1.45% — gave back 4.41pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
- Planned at 1.7:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.
Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.
Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".
- Oversold momentum (Stochastic K=0, D=14.51) indicates potential mean reversion
- RSI_PULLBACK strategy in exact disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol regime shows 100% win rate (3 trades)
- Macro regime disinflation (score 33) is constructive for risk assets
- Bearish trend confirmed by ADX=45.26 and trend signal
- Negative funding rate (-0.00003%) reflects bearish crowd positioning
- Bull case lacks strong structural support per desk analysis
See the bull vs bear showdown
Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.
- Market Scout: Scans the universe, ranks candidates, and frames the live market regime before the desk debates a trade.
- Technical Analyst: Reads trend, momentum, structure, and timeframe alignment from the live TA stack.
- Bull Analyst: Builds the strongest possible long thesis from the data without hiding the trade-offs.
- Bear Analyst: Builds the strongest possible short or caution case so the desk does not confuse momentum with edge.
- Risk Officer: Challenges trade quality, invalidation, and position discipline before capital is committed.
- FredAI Policy: Applies replay memory, failure history, and regime policy so the desk learns instead of repeating old mistakes.
- CIO / ThesisAI: Makes the final publish-or-block call and turns the desk verdict into a clean execution thesis.
The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.
Defensive long entry near lower Bollinger support (0.121-0.123) targeting 0.127-0.130, with hard stop at 0.119. Oversold stochastic and regime-aligned RSI_PULLBACK memory support a tactical bounce, but bearish trend and thin bull structure necessitate tight risk control. Execute only if price holds entry zone; invalidate immediately on break below 0.119.
Desk decision packet
ARB desk packet: LONG bias, 1-3d horizon. ARB shows bearish trend and oversold momentum across the live TA stack. Risk is conditionally cleared with a low rating. ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Bull vs bear conflict: The bull case is still thin and needs stronger structure before the desk should press the long side. / The bear case is still thin and mostly serves as tactical caution rather than a dominant counter-view.
Sentiment analyst memo
- Negative funding rate indicating bearish crowd sentiment
- Bullish macro regime with disinflation supporting trend-following longs
Risk officer memo
- ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
- Model risk fallback used after: The operation was aborted due to timeout
Directional decision
Calibrated debate
- Desk prior reinforced long by 4.8.
- FredAI policy promoted the long case.
- Strategy commander only mildly leaned long by 3.0.
- Historical lane quality forces a more cautious debate balance.
- TA composite leans bearish.
- Trend structure supports the bear case.
- Exact-regime replay supports the long case.
FredAI policy
- RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
- overfit penalty is high at 34.0
- exact-regime replay is available
- replay remains supportive with score 16.9