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Thesis · thesis_mo6cv32p_0gkhfz
ARB

ARB

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-19T22:46:50Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
73/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.16%.

  • Closed -0.16% at conviction 73/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1222
Entry high
$0.1232
Target 1
$0.1260
Target 2
$0.1281
Stop loss
$0.1200
ARB · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.130.11930.10870.0980.08730.09655/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
43.5
Bearish
ADX 14
22.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1100
Lower 0.0900
inside
SMA stack
200.1000
500.1000
2000.1200
TA Workspace · ARB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ARB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.096430 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
37,037.037 ARB
$4.54K
Leverage
0.45x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.126
+1.22R$122.22(+1.22%)
T2 hit @ 0.1281
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.12
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ARB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 92.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 9.10%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 72.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 45.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1200, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ARB Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. ARB cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ARB
Timestamp1776638667813
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.87,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.13,
    "middle": 0.13,
    "lower": 0.12,
    "width": 8.47
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 14.51
  },
  "adx14": 45.26,
  "obv": -4785082.752279996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776638667811,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 29.96,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 2.5
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 12.69
      },
      "adx14": 22.85,
      "obv": 284319.26668000035
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776638667812,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 41.29,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.13,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 4.04
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 12.06
      },
      "adx14": 12.88,
      "obv": -1165515.83046
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776638667812,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.87,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.13,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 8.47
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 14.51
      },
      "adx14": 45.26,
      "obv": -4785082.752279996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776638667813,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 49.64
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 56.95
      },
      "adx14": 30.87,
      "obv": -67924242.12754999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest9420778.87
Price0.12
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.90
Leverage3
Stop loss0.12
Take profit0.13
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.20
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ARB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread21
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score72.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence70.20
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 72.5.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.30
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score31.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1227
Funding rate
-0.0030%
Open interest
$9.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ARB chart with overlay More thesesAll ARB theses