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Thesis · thesis_mo6f5oas_mwoeo1
ENA

ENA

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 91d ago · 2026-04-19T23:51:00Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
71/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.04%
peak +0.04% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +4.30%.

  • High conviction (71/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +4.30% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1117
Entry high
$0.1126
Target 1
$0.1148
Target 2
$0.1164
Stop loss
$0.1100
ENA · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.11830.10780.09740.08690.07650.08287/15 21:007/17 03:007/18 09:007/19 15:007/20 21:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · normalSMA · none
RSI 14
57.8
Bullish
ADX 14
15.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0800
Lower 0.0800
inside
SMA stack
200.0800
500.0800
2000.0800
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · ENA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ENA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.082843 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
46,511.6279 ENA
$5.22K
Leverage
0.52x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.98
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1148
+1.23R$123.26(+1.23%)
T2 hit @ 0.1164
+1.98R$197.67(+1.98%)
Stop hit @ 0.11
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ENA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 66.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 31.5, returned 35.64%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 90.6.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 51.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1100, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ENA Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. ENA cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ENA
Price0.11
Timestamp1776642503150
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 47.59,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.13,
    "middle": 0.12,
    "lower": 0.11,
    "width": 17.49
  },
  "sma20": 0.12,
  "sma50": 0.11,
  "sma200": 0.1,
  "ema12": 0.12,
  "ema26": 0.11,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0.86,
    "d": 9.89
  },
  "adx14": 51.21,
  "obv": 2775774.10805
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ENA",
    "timestamp": 1776642503149,
    "price": 0.11212972,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 24.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 5.08
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.12,
      "sma200": 0.12,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7,
        "d": 6.88
      },
      "adx14": 30.75,
      "obv": -291774.8390699996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ENA",
    "timestamp": 1776642503149,
    "price": 0.11212972,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.46,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 9.52
      },
      "sma20": 0.12,
      "sma50": 0.12,
      "sma200": 0.11,
      "ema12": 0.12,
      "ema26": 0.12,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.96,
        "d": 3.27
      },
      "adx14": 19.73,
      "obv": 7271927.903960002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ENA",
    "timestamp": 1776642503149,
    "price": 0.11212972,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 17.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.12,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.12,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0.86,
        "d": 9.89
      },
      "adx14": 51.21,
      "obv": 2775774.10805
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ENA",
    "timestamp": 1776642503150,
    "price": 0.11212972,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.07,
        "width": 54.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 46.43,
        "d": 57.21
      },
      "adx14": 31.2,
      "obv": -121361557.30129005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest29517764.41
Price0.11
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.11
Take profit0.12
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.90
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ENA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread19.75
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 31.5
  • LONG desk bias has 79 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score90.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence81.30
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 31.5
  • LONG desk bias has 79 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 90.6.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.40
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score28.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1121
Funding rate
0.0003%
Open interest
$29.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ENA chart with overlay More thesesAll ENA theses