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Thesis · thesis_mo6nok6c_bpj36d
KAITO

KAITO

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-20T03:50:09Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.01%.

  • Closed +0.01% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4043
Entry high
$0.4091
Target 1
$0.3881
Target 2
$0.3767
Stop loss
$0.4217
KAITO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.4880.45890.42970.40060.37140.4645/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · death cross
RSI 14
52.6
Neutral
ADX 14
15.5
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.15% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4700
Lower 0.4500
inside
SMA stack
200.4600
500.4700
2000.4800
TA Workspace · KAITO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

KAITO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.464070 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 KAITO
$2.71K
Leverage
0.27x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3881
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.3767
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.4217
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open KAITO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 26.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4217, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is washed out inside a weak trend.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 36.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 21.3, returned 20.13%, win rate 75.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. EMA PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 61.9.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
KAITO Short: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. KAITO cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
KAITO
Price0.41
Timestamp1776656815137
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 30.69,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": -0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.51,
    "middle": 0.46,
    "lower": 0.41,
    "width": 21.44
  },
  "sma20": 0.46,
  "sma50": 0.44,
  "sma200": 0.41,
  "ema12": 0.44,
  "ema26": 0.45,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0.7,
    "d": 2.64
  },
  "adx14": 26.37,
  "obv": 94781.30045
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "below_lower",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6,
  "bearScore": 8.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776656815136,
    "price": 0.40670385,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 24.71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.42,
        "lower": 0.41,
        "width": 3.57
      },
      "sma20": 0.42,
      "sma50": 0.43,
      "sma200": 0.45,
      "ema12": 0.41,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 4.72,
        "d": 17.54
      },
      "adx14": 53.53,
      "obv": -12449.83278
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 9.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776656815136,
    "price": 0.40670385,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 19.22,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.47,
        "middle": 0.44,
        "lower": 0.4,
        "width": 15.21
      },
      "sma20": 0.44,
      "sma50": 0.45,
      "sma200": 0.44,
      "ema12": 0.42,
      "ema26": 0.44,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 1.51,
        "d": 8.43
      },
      "adx14": 40.18,
      "obv": -8128.097500000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776656815136,
    "price": 0.40670385,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.51,
        "middle": 0.46,
        "lower": 0.41,
        "width": 21.44
      },
      "sma20": 0.46,
      "sma50": 0.44,
      "sma200": 0.41,
      "ema12": 0.44,
      "ema26": 0.45,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0.7,
        "d": 2.64
      },
      "adx14": 26.37,
      "obv": 94781.30045
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776656815137,
    "price": 0.40670385,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.43,
        "lower": 0.38,
        "width": 23.56
      },
      "sma20": 0.43,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.6,
      "ema12": 0.43,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20.74,
        "d": 33.07
      },
      "adx14": 34.57,
      "obv": 383687.86454
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1997301.50
Price0.41
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.16
Leverage2
Stop loss0.42
Take profit0.38
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.69
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for KAITO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score61.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence60.40
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 61.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-10.20
Note
Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score23
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4067
Funding rate
-0.0126%
Open interest
$2.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See KAITO chart with overlay More thesesAll KAITO theses