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Thesis · thesis_mo6orsr7_fpgzu6
AVAX

AVAX

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 90d ago · 2026-04-20T04:20:07Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.65%.

  • Closed -0.65% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.0848
Entry high
$9.1832
Target 1
$8.8595
Target 2
$8.6912
Stop loss
$9.38
AVAX · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
9.53058.70297.87537.04766.226.48337/14 17:007/15 23:007/17 05:007/18 11:007/19 17:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · none
RSI 14
42.4
Bearish
ADX 14
12.4
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0900
1.39% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 6.65
Lower 6.44
inside
SMA stack
206.54
506.56
2006.55
TA Workspace · AVAX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

AVAX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $6.4390 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
406.5041 AVAX
$3.71K
Leverage
0.37x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 8.8595
+1.12R$111.59(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 8.6912
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 9.38
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open AVAX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 20.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $9.3800, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 72.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 28.0, returned 23.59%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 85.9.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
AVAX Short: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming. AVAX cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
AVAX
Price9.13
Timestamp1776658669202
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 39.81,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.1,
    "signal": -0.05,
    "histogram": -0.05
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.91,
    "middle": 9.43,
    "lower": 8.95,
    "width": 10.12
  },
  "sma20": 9.43,
  "sma50": 9.38,
  "sma200": 9.23,
  "ema12": 9.26,
  "ema26": 9.36,
  "atr14": 0.17,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 20,
    "d": 14.97
  },
  "adx14": 20.84,
  "obv": -55635.50614433991
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776658669200,
    "price": 9.134,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.19,
        "middle": 9.1,
        "lower": 9.02,
        "width": 1.89
      },
      "sma20": 9.1,
      "sma50": 9.13,
      "sma200": 9.33,
      "ema12": 9.13,
      "ema26": 9.12,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60,
        "d": 75.93
      },
      "adx14": 20.17,
      "obv": -166035.28882495
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776658669201,
    "price": 9.134,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.06,
        "signal": -0.07,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.34,
        "middle": 9.18,
        "lower": 9.01,
        "width": 3.59
      },
      "sma20": 9.18,
      "sma50": 9.32,
      "sma200": 9.38,
      "ema12": 9.14,
      "ema26": 9.2,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 46.86,
        "d": 45.19
      },
      "adx14": 31.74,
      "obv": -71064.15006203989
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776658669202,
    "price": 9.134,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.1,
        "signal": -0.05,
        "histogram": -0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.91,
        "middle": 9.43,
        "lower": 8.95,
        "width": 10.12
      },
      "sma20": 9.43,
      "sma50": 9.38,
      "sma200": 9.23,
      "ema12": 9.26,
      "ema26": 9.36,
      "atr14": 0.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20,
        "d": 14.97
      },
      "adx14": 20.84,
      "obv": -55635.50614433991
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776658669202,
    "price": 9.134,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.79,
        "middle": 9.24,
        "lower": 8.69,
        "width": 11.85
      },
      "sma20": 9.24,
      "sma50": 9.31,
      "sma200": 13.29,
      "ema12": 9.31,
      "ema26": 9.29,
      "atr14": 0.49,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 42.84,
        "d": 44.39
      },
      "adx14": 9.12,
      "obv": -5940788.820393249
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest51210825.53
Price9.13
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.65
Leverage2
Stop loss9.38
Take profit8.69
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.69
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for AVAX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 28.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score85.90
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence76.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 28.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 85.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.10
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score44.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.134
Funding rate
-0.0029%
Open interest
$51.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See AVAX chart with overlay More thesesAll AVAX theses