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Thesis · thesis_mo758rgk_1dnlvh
CRV

CRV

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 44d ago · 2026-04-20T12:01:48Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.10%.

  • Closed -0.10% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2262
Entry high
$0.2289
Target 1
$0.2360
Target 2
$0.2412
Stop loss
$0.2200
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
46.1
Neutral
ADX 14
31.1
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.81% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2200
Lower 0.2000
inside
SMA stack
200.2100
500.2100
2000.2400
TA Workspace · CRV
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CRV · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.208140 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
13,245.0331 CRV
$3.01K
Leverage
0.30x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.81
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.236
+1.12R$111.92(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.2412
+1.81R$180.79(+1.81%)
Stop hit @ 0.22
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CRV on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 68.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 16.3, returned 8.50%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 88.2.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.1, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2200, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
CRV Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. CRV cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CRV
Price0.23
Timestamp1776686309124
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 49.17,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.24,
    "middle": 0.23,
    "lower": 0.22,
    "width": 9.45
  },
  "sma20": 0.23,
  "sma50": 0.22,
  "sma200": 0.22,
  "ema12": 0.23,
  "ema26": 0.23,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 30.68,
    "d": 27.2
  },
  "adx14": 24.13,
  "obv": -6404987.71973896
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776686309122,
    "price": 0.22757212,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.79,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.23,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 1.88
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 6.21,
        "d": 8.97
      },
      "adx14": 28.47,
      "obv": 684800.6726464698
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776686309123,
    "price": 0.22757212,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.23,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 3.6
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 67.96,
        "d": 77.17
      },
      "adx14": 16.56,
      "obv": -565651.1173466116
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776686309123,
    "price": 0.22757212,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 9.45
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.22,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 30.68,
        "d": 27.2
      },
      "adx14": 24.13,
      "obv": -6404987.71973896
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776686309124,
    "price": 0.22757212,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 14.9
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.36,
      "ema12": 0.22,
      "ema26": 0.22,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 59.71,
        "d": 56.84
      },
      "adx14": 12.83,
      "obv": -135841125.68843803
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest7716261.17
Price0.23
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.34
Leverage2
Stop loss0.22
Take profit0.24
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.33
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CRV; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread23
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.3
  • LONG desk bias has 92 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score88.20
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence82.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.3
  • LONG desk bias has 92 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 88.2.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.10
Note
Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score29.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2276
Funding rate
0.0088%
Open interest
$7.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See CRV chart with overlay More thesesAll CRV theses