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Thesis · thesis_mo7lnh6s_wucua8
INJ

INJ

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 89d ago · 2026-04-20T19:40:37Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.11%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -1.11% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.3072
Entry high
$3.3208
Target 1
$3.3562
Target 2
$3.382
Stop loss
$3.28
INJ · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
5.3264.79024.25433.71843.18265.13687/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
56.8
Bullish
ADX 14
23.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.1100
2.14% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 5.25
Lower 4.86
inside
SMA stack
205.05
504.98
2004.87
PatternsBearish Marubozu
TA Workspace · INJ
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

INJ · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $5.1363 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
2,941.1765 INJ
$9.75K
Leverage
0.97x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 3.3562
+1.24R$124.12(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 3.382
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 3.28
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open INJ on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 126.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 18.0, returned 9.01%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 29.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $3.2800, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating.

Final thesis
INJ Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating. INJ cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
INJ
Price3.31
Timestamp1776713854637
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.52,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 3.41,
    "middle": 3.28,
    "lower": 3.15,
    "width": 7.88
  },
  "sma20": 3.28,
  "sma50": 3.18,
  "sma200": 3,
  "ema12": 3.27,
  "ema26": 3.26,
  "atr14": 0.07,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 77.16,
    "d": 67.88
  },
  "adx14": 29.89,
  "obv": -69114.64971314004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776713854636,
    "price": 3.314,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.64,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.36,
        "middle": 3.32,
        "lower": 3.28,
        "width": 2.47
      },
      "sma20": 3.32,
      "sma50": 3.29,
      "sma200": 3.25,
      "ema12": 3.32,
      "ema26": 3.31,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 34.78,
        "d": 41.06
      },
      "adx14": 16.09,
      "obv": 16173.60088116
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776713854637,
    "price": 3.314,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.35,
        "middle": 3.28,
        "lower": 3.21,
        "width": 4.33
      },
      "sma20": 3.28,
      "sma50": 3.25,
      "sma200": 3.18,
      "ema12": 3.3,
      "ema26": 3.28,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65.65,
        "d": 82.07
      },
      "adx14": 23.16,
      "obv": 4380.184769670006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776713854637,
    "price": 3.314,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.41,
        "middle": 3.28,
        "lower": 3.15,
        "width": 7.88
      },
      "sma20": 3.28,
      "sma50": 3.18,
      "sma200": 3,
      "ema12": 3.27,
      "ema26": 3.26,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.16,
        "d": 67.88
      },
      "adx14": 29.89,
      "obv": -69114.64971314004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776713854637,
    "price": 3.314,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.39,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.08,
        "signal": 0.04,
        "histogram": 0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.42,
        "middle": 3.02,
        "lower": 2.63,
        "width": 26.02
      },
      "sma20": 3.02,
      "sma50": 3.01,
      "sma200": 5.14,
      "ema12": 3.16,
      "ema26": 3.08,
      "atr14": 0.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.43,
        "d": 62.89
      },
      "adx14": 16.34,
      "obv": -2430852.6949156066
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1500600.65
Price3.31
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss3.28
Take profit3.38
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.03
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for INJ; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence89.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1.10
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score61.80
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.314
Funding rate
-0.0173%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See INJ chart with overlay More thesesAll INJ theses