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Thesis · thesis_mo7lsx05_xjdb0k
ETH

ETH

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-20T19:44:49Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
73/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.09%.

  • Closed -0.09% at conviction 73/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,325.06
Entry high
$2,329.72
Target 1
$2,337.78
Target 2
$2,344.15
Stop loss
$2,318.08
ETH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2,370.532,225.432,080.321,935.221,790.121,868.75/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
31.8
Bearish
ADX 14
41.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.31
2.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2075
Lower 1833
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1868.80 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
10.7416 ETH
$25.00K
Leverage
2.50x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$1861.91
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2337.7795
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 2344.1472
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 2318.0804
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 93.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.0, returned 11.49%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 17.2, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $2318.0804, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
ETH Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. ETH cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Price2327.39
Timestamp1776714149493
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 49.81,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -9.09,
    "signal": -4.43,
    "histogram": -4.66
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2445.03,
    "middle": 2347.19,
    "lower": 2249.35,
    "width": 8.34
  },
  "sma20": 2347.19,
  "sma50": 2324.21,
  "sma200": 2167.69,
  "ema12": 2319.23,
  "ema26": 2328.32,
  "atr14": 40.11,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 60.46,
    "d": 45.06
  },
  "adx14": 17.22,
  "obv": -35821.86469395993
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776714149491,
    "price": 2327.39,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.73,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 6.76,
        "signal": 5.4,
        "histogram": 1.37
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2343.3,
        "middle": 2316.82,
        "lower": 2290.34,
        "width": 2.29
      },
      "sma20": 2316.82,
      "sma50": 2311.98,
      "sma200": 2315.64,
      "ema12": 2325.31,
      "ema26": 2318.55,
      "atr14": 11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 61.21,
        "d": 68.68
      },
      "adx14": 26.73,
      "obv": -6026.518048750003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776714149492,
    "price": 2327.39,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 3.3,
        "signal": -1.84,
        "histogram": 5.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2334.46,
        "middle": 2300.66,
        "lower": 2266.85,
        "width": 2.94
      },
      "sma20": 2300.66,
      "sma50": 2314.8,
      "sma200": 2322.49,
      "ema12": 2312.09,
      "ema26": 2308.78,
      "atr14": 20.76,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.64,
        "d": 80.8
      },
      "adx14": 22.85,
      "obv": 18245.73874806001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776714149492,
    "price": 2327.39,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -9.09,
        "signal": -4.43,
        "histogram": -4.66
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2445.03,
        "middle": 2347.19,
        "lower": 2249.35,
        "width": 8.34
      },
      "sma20": 2347.19,
      "sma50": 2324.21,
      "sma200": 2167.69,
      "ema12": 2319.23,
      "ema26": 2328.32,
      "atr14": 40.11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.46,
        "d": 45.06
      },
      "adx14": 17.22,
      "obv": -35821.86469395993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776714149493,
    "price": 2327.39,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 63.36,
        "signal": 57.11,
        "histogram": 6.25
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2457.87,
        "middle": 2231.96,
        "lower": 2006.05,
        "width": 20.24
      },
      "sma20": 2231.96,
      "sma50": 2143.87,
      "sma200": 2845.36,
      "ema12": 2295.45,
      "ema26": 2232.09,
      "atr14": 106.86,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65.89,
        "d": 63.43
      },
      "adx14": 22.05,
      "obv": -672714.9504883197
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest998932132.74
Price2327.39
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss2318.08
Take profit2344.15
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread21
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.30
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.30
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.70
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,327.39
Funding rate
-0.0031%
Open interest
$998.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses