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Thesis · thesis_mo7m037f_cknbnc
TIA

TIA

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-20T19:50:24Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.03%.

  • Closed -0.03% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3808
Entry high
$0.3854
Target 1
$0.3993
Target 2
$0.4093
Stop loss
$0.3700
TIA · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.44170.4180.39430.37070.3470.38115/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · noneMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
45.7
Neutral
ADX 14
24.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0200
5.23% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4100
Lower 0.3600
inside
SMA stack
200.3900
500.4100
2000.4100
TA Workspace · TIA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

TIA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.381690 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
7,633.5878 TIA
$2.92K
Leverage
0.29x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3993
+1.24R$123.66(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.4093
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.37
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open TIA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 107.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 26.9, returned 19.68%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 99.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 31.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3700, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating.

Final thesis
TIA Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating. TIA cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
TIA
Price0.38
Timestamp1776714594169
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 50.52,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.43,
    "middle": 0.4,
    "lower": 0.37,
    "width": 16.01
  },
  "sma20": 0.4,
  "sma50": 0.36,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.39,
  "ema26": 0.38,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 34.87,
    "d": 28.54
  },
  "adx14": 31.53,
  "obv": -117902.611200001
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776714594167,
    "price": 0.3831,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.38,
        "lower": 0.38,
        "width": 1.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.38,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.39,
      "ema12": 0.38,
      "ema26": 0.38,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 42.25,
        "d": 65.26
      },
      "adx14": 13.9,
      "obv": -1706958.04981
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776714594168,
    "price": 0.3831,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.38,
        "lower": 0.38,
        "width": 3.88
      },
      "sma20": 0.38,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.36,
      "ema12": 0.38,
      "ema26": 0.39,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 36.76,
        "d": 46.7
      },
      "adx14": 11.62,
      "obv": -797271.4232799999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776714594168,
    "price": 0.3831,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.43,
        "middle": 0.4,
        "lower": 0.37,
        "width": 16.01
      },
      "sma20": 0.4,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.39,
      "ema26": 0.38,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 34.87,
        "d": 28.54
      },
      "adx14": 31.53,
      "obv": -117902.611200001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776714594169,
    "price": 0.3831,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.41,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 54.96
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.57,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 61.34,
        "d": 60.66
      },
      "adx14": 24.15,
      "obv": -20309690.236549996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest3303094.63
Price0.38
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.29
Leverage2
Stop loss0.37
Take profit0.41
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.42
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for TIA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread24.50
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score99.70
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 99.7.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-0.70
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score61.30
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3831
Funding rate
0.0025%
Open interest
$3.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See TIA chart with overlay More thesesAll TIA theses