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Thesis · thesis_mo7nsnk9_ortvcp
M

M

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 90d ago · 2026-04-20T20:40:39Z · expires 2026-04-22

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.56%.

  • Closed -1.56% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.522
Entry high
$3.5646
Target 1
$3.8574
Target 2
$4.0499
Stop loss
$3.29
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for M. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for M should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for M
TA Workspace · M
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

M · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $65085.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
394.7888 BTC
$1.40K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 3.8574
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 4.0499
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 3.29
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 101.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 24.1, returned 17.25%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 78.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 25.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $3.2900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
M Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. M cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
M
Price3.54
Timestamp1776717455669
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.22,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.03,
    "signal": 0.06,
    "histogram": -0.03
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 4.4,
    "middle": 3.67,
    "lower": 2.94,
    "width": 39.95
  },
  "sma20": 3.67,
  "sma50": 3.29,
  "sma200": 2.54,
  "ema12": 3.53,
  "ema26": 3.5,
  "atr14": 0.38,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 55.61,
    "d": 46.56
  },
  "adx14": 25.33,
  "obv": 527245.4604499999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776717455668,
    "price": 3.54330403,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.66,
        "middle": 3.57,
        "lower": 3.48,
        "width": 5.06
      },
      "sma20": 3.57,
      "sma50": 3.52,
      "sma200": 3.5,
      "ema12": 3.54,
      "ema26": 3.55,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 30.58,
        "d": 12.38
      },
      "adx14": 10.49,
      "obv": -38868.35441
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776717455669,
    "price": 3.54330403,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.68,
        "middle": 3.49,
        "lower": 3.3,
        "width": 11.08
      },
      "sma20": 3.49,
      "sma50": 3.49,
      "sma200": 3.28,
      "ema12": 3.54,
      "ema26": 3.52,
      "atr14": 0.18,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 61.47,
        "d": 61.92
      },
      "adx14": 8.46,
      "obv": 211940.26137000008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776717455669,
    "price": 3.54330403,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.22,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.06,
        "histogram": -0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 4.4,
        "middle": 3.67,
        "lower": 2.94,
        "width": 39.95
      },
      "sma20": 3.67,
      "sma50": 3.29,
      "sma200": 2.54,
      "ema12": 3.53,
      "ema26": 3.5,
      "atr14": 0.38,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 55.61,
        "d": 46.56
      },
      "adx14": 25.33,
      "obv": 527245.4604499999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776717455669,
    "price": 3.54330403,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.38,
        "signal": 0.33,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.75,
        "middle": 2.92,
        "lower": 2.09,
        "width": 56.9
      },
      "sma20": 2.92,
      "sma50": 2.21,
      "sma200": 1.86,
      "ema12": 3.2,
      "ema26": 2.82,
      "atr14": 0.49,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.07,
        "d": 45.95
      },
      "adx14": 63.33,
      "obv": 1761902.4487499997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0
Open Interest0
Price3.54
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss3.29
Take profit4.05
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.15
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for M; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.1
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score78
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence69.40
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.1
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 78.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score1.70
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score39.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.5433
Funding rate
0.0000%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See M chart with overlay More thesesAll M theses