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Thesis · thesis_mo7sjlpd_qi0cc2
LDO

LDO

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 88d ago · 2026-04-20T22:53:29Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -2.61%.

  • Closed -2.61% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3683
Entry high
$0.3727
Target 1
$0.3891
Target 2
$0.4005
Stop loss
$0.3555
LDO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.4050.38010.35510.33010.30520.35527/13 19:007/15 01:007/16 07:007/17 13:007/18 19:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
49.6
Neutral
ADX 14
55.3
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.81% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.3900
Lower 0.3400
inside
SMA stack
200.3700
500.3400
2000.2900
TA Workspace · LDO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LDO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.356110 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 LDO
$2.47K
Leverage
0.25x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3891
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.4005
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.3555
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LDO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 72.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 26.4, returned 23.97%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 27.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3555, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
LDO Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. LDO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LDO
Price0.37
Timestamp1776725464157
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 45.98,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.44,
    "middle": 0.39,
    "lower": 0.34,
    "width": 25.82
  },
  "sma20": 0.39,
  "sma50": 0.38,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.37,
  "ema26": 0.38,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 43.22,
    "d": 20.07
  },
  "adx14": 27.24,
  "obv": 945681.5401330907
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776725464156,
    "price": 0.3705,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 8.11
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.37,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 70,
        "d": 78.15
      },
      "adx14": 32.35,
      "obv": -228385.72586076963
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776725464156,
    "price": 0.3705,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 7.62
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.37,
      "sma200": 0.37,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.27,
        "d": 81.71
      },
      "adx14": 28.43,
      "obv": 111043.13205093039
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776725464157,
    "price": 0.3705,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.44,
        "middle": 0.39,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 25.82
      },
      "sma20": 0.39,
      "sma50": 0.38,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.38,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.22,
        "d": 20.07
      },
      "adx14": 27.24,
      "obv": 945681.5401330907
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776725464157,
    "price": 0.3705,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.43,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 42.08
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.56,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 44.93,
        "d": 46.28
      },
      "adx14": 29.64,
      "obv": -16762042.64829953
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest5708201.43
Price0.37
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.98
Leverage2
Stop loss0.36
Take profit0.40
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.05
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LDO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread24.50
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.4
  • LONG desk bias has 98 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.60
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.4
  • LONG desk bias has 98 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.50
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score19.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3705
Funding rate
0.0027%
Open interest
$5.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See LDO chart with overlay More thesesAll LDO theses