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Thesis · thesis_mo7vfj6c_aw3r60
KAITO

KAITO

 shortWIN 1-3d

Generated 88d ago · 2026-04-21T00:14:50Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
72/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.05%
peak +0.06% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +4.89%.

  • High conviction (72/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +5.51% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4086
Entry high
$0.4136
Target 1
$0.3925
Target 2
$0.3811
Stop loss
$0.4261
KAITO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.97210.81730.66250.50780.3530.82537/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
55.0
Bullish
ADX 14
29.8
Trending
ATR 14
0.0400
4.85% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.9100
Lower 0.7200
inside
SMA stack
200.8200
500.7400
2000.5900
TA Workspace · KAITO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

KAITO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.824910 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 KAITO
$2.74K
Leverage
0.27x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3925
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.3811
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.4261
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open KAITO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 28.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4261, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Bear case
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 71.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 21.3, returned 20.13%, win rate 75.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
KAITO Short: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. KAITO cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
KAITO
Price0.41
Timestamp1776730295190
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 36.46,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": -0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.49,
    "middle": 0.44,
    "lower": 0.39,
    "width": 23.94
  },
  "sma20": 0.44,
  "sma50": 0.44,
  "sma200": 0.41,
  "ema12": 0.42,
  "ema26": 0.44,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 16.38,
    "d": 23.73
  },
  "adx14": 28.15,
  "obv": 113992.28013
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 8.5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776730295188,
    "price": 0.4111,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.42,
        "lower": 0.41,
        "width": 2.64
      },
      "sma20": 0.42,
      "sma50": 0.41,
      "sma200": 0.43,
      "ema12": 0.42,
      "ema26": 0.41,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 46.32
      },
      "adx14": 17.39,
      "obv": 18279.466580000008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776730295188,
    "price": 0.4111,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.4,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.41,
        "lower": 0.4,
        "width": 4.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.41,
      "sma50": 0.43,
      "sma200": 0.44,
      "ema12": 0.41,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 18.59,
        "d": 40.88
      },
      "adx14": 30.51,
      "obv": 4486.392520000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776730295189,
    "price": 0.4111,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.46,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.49,
        "middle": 0.44,
        "lower": 0.39,
        "width": 23.94
      },
      "sma20": 0.44,
      "sma50": 0.44,
      "sma200": 0.41,
      "ema12": 0.42,
      "ema26": 0.44,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 16.38,
        "d": 23.73
      },
      "adx14": 28.15,
      "obv": 113992.28013
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776730295190,
    "price": 0.4111,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.43,
        "lower": 0.38,
        "width": 23.06
      },
      "sma20": 0.43,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.59,
      "ema12": 0.43,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 24.24,
        "d": 27.46
      },
      "adx14": 32.66,
      "obv": 427385.18577999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1866363.61
Price0.41
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.18
Leverage2
Stop loss0.43
Take profit0.38
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.65
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for KAITO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread21.25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence85.20
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.20
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score43.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4111
Funding rate
-0.0019%
Open interest
$1.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See KAITO chart with overlay More thesesAll KAITO theses