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Thesis · thesis_mo82wmes_98nj2c
APE

APE

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T03:43:40Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.02%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +2.06%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +2.31% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1015
Entry high
$0.1023
Target 1
$0.1042
Target 2
$0.1057
Stop loss
$0.1000
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
58.2
Bullish
ADX 14
27.6
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
6.63% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1400
2000.1500
TA Workspace · APE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.151530 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
52,631.5789 APE
$5.36K
Leverage
0.54x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1042
+1.21R$121.05(+1.21%)
T2 hit @ 0.1057
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.1
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 101.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 21.1, returned 17.84%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 47.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
APE Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. APE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
APE
Price0.10
Timestamp1776742872188
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 50.29,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.1,
    "width": 7.55
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.1,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 28.92,
    "d": 31.61
  },
  "adx14": 47.36,
  "obv": -388929.4876299791
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776742872187,
    "price": 0.10188998,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 21.93,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 2.89
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 3.21,
        "d": 1.07
      },
      "adx14": 39.09,
      "obv": 60678.925247989995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776742872187,
    "price": 0.10188998,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 41.11,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 4.43
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 1.47,
        "d": 22.88
      },
      "adx14": 17.19,
      "obv": -738821.4963521499
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776742872188,
    "price": 0.10188998,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.29,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 7.55
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.92,
        "d": 31.61
      },
      "adx14": 47.36,
      "obv": -388929.4876299791
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776742872188,
    "price": 0.10188998,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 33.61
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 38.14,
        "d": 40.71
      },
      "adx14": 29.19,
      "obv": -23011005.894481484
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1531953.89
Price0.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.10
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.85
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_elite at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander is elite and aligned with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.1
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence88.20
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.1
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.40
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score56.90
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1019
Funding rate
0.0049%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See APE chart with overlay More thesesAll APE theses