Thesis · thesis_mo879v1u_9c8z29

NEAR

longWIN 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T05:45:55Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction

71/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

+0.01%

peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%

R:R

1.8:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +0.73%.

High conviction (71/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
Captured most of the move — exit near the +0.73% peak with minimal giveback.
Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$1.3626

Entry high

$1.3654

Target 1

$1.3701

Target 2

$1.3738

Stop loss

$1.3585

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross

RSI 14

66.2

Bullish

ADX 14

26.2

Trending

ATR 14

0.1600

5.56% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 2.91

Lower 2.12

inside

SMA stack

202.52

502.49

2001.86

TA Workspace · NEAR

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

NEAR · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $2.9650 · max 10x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 10x)

Trade plan

Position size

18,181.8182 NEAR

$24.80K

Leverage

2.48x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

$1.0890

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.78

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 1.3701

+1.11R$110.91(+1.11%)

T2 hit @ 1.3738

+1.78R$178.18(+1.78%)

Stop hit @ 1.3585

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open NEAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h structure leans constructive.
Replay supports the live regime read.
FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
Candidate quality is 95.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.6, returned 11.91%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 83.8.

Bear case

ADX is only near 19.0, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
The stop band sits near $1.3585, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

NEAR Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. NEAR cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

NEAR

Price1.36

Timestamp1776750123159

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 48.74,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": -0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.4,
    "middle": 1.36,
    "lower": 1.32,
    "width": 6.23
  },
  "sma20": 1.36,
  "sma50": 1.39,
  "sma200": 1.3,
  "ema12": 1.36,
  "ema26": 1.37,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 62.12,
    "d": 57.07
  },
  "adx14": 19.03,
  "obv": 568651.7529991502
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776750123157,
    "price": 1.364,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.37,
        "middle": 1.36,
        "lower": 1.35,
        "width": 1.67
      },
      "sma20": 1.36,
      "sma50": 1.36,
      "sma200": 1.35,
      "ema12": 1.36,
      "ema26": 1.36,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 70,
        "d": 83.33
      },
      "adx14": 19.29,
      "obv": -116058.97357128999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776750123158,
    "price": 1.364,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.37,
        "middle": 1.36,
        "lower": 1.35,
        "width": 2.05
      },
      "sma20": 1.36,
      "sma50": 1.35,
      "sma200": 1.38,
      "ema12": 1.36,
      "ema26": 1.36,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.29,
        "d": 61.78
      },
      "adx14": 11.79,
      "obv": 57464.18260207968
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776750123158,
    "price": 1.364,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.4,
        "middle": 1.36,
        "lower": 1.32,
        "width": 6.23
      },
      "sma20": 1.36,
      "sma50": 1.39,
      "sma200": 1.3,
      "ema12": 1.36,
      "ema26": 1.37,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.12,
        "d": 57.07
      },
      "adx14": 19.03,
      "obv": 568651.7529991502
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776750123159,
    "price": 1.364,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.48,
        "middle": 1.33,
        "lower": 1.19,
        "width": 21.68
      },
      "sma20": 1.33,
      "sma50": 1.3,
      "sma200": 1.65,
      "ema12": 1.36,
      "ema26": 1.33,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50.63,
        "d": 54.13
      },
      "adx14": 28.72,
      "obv": -5036475.58278258
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest27863213.82

Price1.36

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss1.36

Take profit1.37

Risk:Reward

1.8:1

Max drawdown %0.40

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for NEAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread18

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 19.6
LONG desk bias has 72 confidence
TA structure is not risk-ready yet

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score83.80

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence81.50

Reasons

STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 19.6
LONG desk bias has 72 confidence
TA structure is not risk-ready yet

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 83.8.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-3.80

Note

Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score41.80

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$1.364

Funding rate

0.0013%

Open interest

$27.9M

Macro regime

disinflation_range_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_range_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See NEAR chart with overlay More theses All NEAR theses