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Thesis · thesis_mo89fyry_bryehu
CC

CC

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 88d ago · 2026-04-21T06:46:41Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.04%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.04%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -4.01%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -4.01% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1553
Entry high
$0.1572
Target 1
$0.1641
Target 2
$0.1688
Stop loss
$0.1500
CC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.1710.15880.14650.13430.1220.12517/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
34.0
Bearish
ADX 14
19.5
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1400
Lower 0.1200
inside
SMA stack
200.1300
500.1300
2000.1400
PatternsDojiBullish Marubozu
TA Workspace · CC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.125050 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
16,000 CC
$2.50K
Leverage
0.25x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.01
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1641
+1.26R$125.60(+1.26%)
T2 hit @ 0.1688
+2.01R$200.80(+2.01%)
Stop hit @ 0.15
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 114.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.5, returned 9.03%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 88.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 33.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
CC Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. CC cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CC
Price0.16
Timestamp1776753456369
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 64.94,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.16,
    "middle": 0.15,
    "lower": 0.14,
    "width": 11.16
  },
  "sma20": 0.15,
  "sma50": 0.15,
  "sma200": 0.15,
  "ema12": 0.15,
  "ema26": 0.15,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 77.79,
    "d": 86.13
  },
  "adx14": 33,
  "obv": -6090416.480740004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776753456368,
    "price": 0.15628,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.16,
        "lower": 0.16,
        "width": 1.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.16,
      "sma50": 0.16,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.16,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 0.18
      },
      "adx14": 14.4,
      "obv": -1957139.09591
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776753456368,
    "price": 0.15628,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.99,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.16,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 3.98
      },
      "sma20": 0.16,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.16,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 19.7,
        "d": 44.27
      },
      "adx14": 39.04,
      "obv": 2159698.4623000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776753456369,
    "price": 0.15628,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.94,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 11.16
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.79,
        "d": 86.13
      },
      "adx14": 33,
      "obv": -6090416.480740004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776753456369,
    "price": 0.15628,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 13.85
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 63.62,
        "d": 56.75
      },
      "adx14": 28.01,
      "obv": -99360969.30012001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest5307143.41
Price0.16
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.99
Leverage2
Stop loss0.15
Take profit0.17
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.02
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.5
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score88.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence76.50
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.5
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 88.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score43.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1563
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$5.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See CC chart with overlay More thesesAll CC theses