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Thesis · thesis_mo89qul3_zlyxrt
XLM

XLM

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T06:55:05Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.04% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.54%.

  • Closed +0.54% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1764
Entry high
$0.1779
Target 1
$0.1818
Target 2
$0.1847
Stop loss
$0.1734
XLM · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.30370.26950.23540.20130.16720.22785/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
49.0
Neutral
ADX 14
26.8
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.39% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2700
Lower 0.2100
inside
SMA stack
200.2400
500.2200
2000.1700
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · XLM
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

XLM · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.227810 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,666.6667 XLM
$4.72K
Leverage
0.47x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.01
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1818
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1847
+2.01R$201.33(+2.01%)
Stop hit @ 0.1734
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open XLM on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 78.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • DONCHIAN BREAKOUT replay (latest asset) scored 15.6, returned 8.72%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. DONCHIAN BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 53.1.
  • Historical lane Swing Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 32.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1734, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
XLM Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. XLM cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
XLM
Price0.18
Timestamp1776754364126
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 67.2,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.18,
    "middle": 0.17,
    "lower": 0.17,
    "width": 6.3
  },
  "sma20": 0.17,
  "sma50": 0.16,
  "sma200": 0.16,
  "ema12": 0.17,
  "ema26": 0.17,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 97.76,
    "d": 88.24
  },
  "adx14": 32.58,
  "obv": -5472409.472386524
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 9.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "XLM",
    "timestamp": 1776754364124,
    "price": 0.177163,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 70.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 2.6
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.18,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.15,
        "d": 91.07
      },
      "adx14": 31.63,
      "obv": -2772229.05852815
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "XLM",
    "timestamp": 1776754364124,
    "price": 0.177163,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.4,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 5.97
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.16,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.53,
        "d": 94.61
      },
      "adx14": 26.2,
      "obv": 5241660.716499913
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "XLM",
    "timestamp": 1776754364125,
    "price": 0.177163,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 6.3
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.16,
      "sma200": 0.16,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 97.76,
        "d": 88.24
      },
      "adx14": 32.58,
      "obv": -5472409.472386524
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "XLM",
    "timestamp": 1776754364126,
    "price": 0.177163,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.16,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 18.47
      },
      "sma20": 0.16,
      "sma50": 0.16,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.16,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 99.08,
        "d": 82.4
      },
      "adx14": 19.69,
      "obv": -318623372.26726943
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2562076.73
Price0.18
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.94
Leverage3
Stop loss0.17
Take profit0.18
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.12
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for XLM; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked XLM mostly because: FredAI memory grade C is still warming (DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT, confidence 55.2).
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score53.10
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence53.80
Reasons
  • DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 53.1.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked XLM mostly because: FredAI memory grade C is still warming (DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT, confidence 55.2).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score26.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1772
Funding rate
0.0063%
Open interest
$2.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See XLM chart with overlay More thesesAll XLM theses