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Thesis · thesis_mo89txhv_4ly2gz
YFI

YFI

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T06:57:33Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.87%.

  • Closed +0.87% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,766.23
Entry high
$2,789.77
Target 1
$2,843.69
Target 2
$2,883.95
Stop loss
$2,719.14
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for YFI. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for YFI should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for YFI
TA Workspace · YFI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

YFI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66893.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1.6989 BTC
$4.72K
Leverage
0.47x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2843.6878
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 2883.948
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 2719.14
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 88.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 12.3, returned 3.11%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 80.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.1, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $2719.1400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
YFI Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. YFI cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
YFI
Price2778
Timestamp1776754507941
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.7,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 21.93,
    "signal": 15.67,
    "histogram": 6.26
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2808.63,
    "middle": 2716.85,
    "lower": 2625.07,
    "width": 6.76
  },
  "sma20": 2716.85,
  "sma50": 2670.5,
  "sma200": 2565.92,
  "ema12": 2736.67,
  "ema26": 2714.73,
  "atr14": 39.24,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 66.05,
    "d": 60.47
  },
  "adx14": 24.13,
  "obv": -29.875821360000028
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "YFI",
    "timestamp": 1776754507939,
    "price": 2778,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 5.22,
        "signal": 3.65,
        "histogram": 1.56
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2795.4,
        "middle": 2766.75,
        "lower": 2738.1,
        "width": 2.07
      },
      "sma20": 2766.75,
      "sma50": 2770.14,
      "sma200": 2714.23,
      "ema12": 2774.76,
      "ema26": 2769.55,
      "atr14": 3.23,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 82.05,
        "d": 82.05
      },
      "adx14": 28.95,
      "obv": 6.26120654
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "YFI",
    "timestamp": 1776754507940,
    "price": 2778,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 16.28,
        "signal": 18.45,
        "histogram": -2.17
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2814.43,
        "middle": 2771.35,
        "lower": 2728.27,
        "width": 3.11
      },
      "sma20": 2771.35,
      "sma50": 2714.66,
      "sma200": 2665.79,
      "ema12": 2767.55,
      "ema26": 2751.27,
      "atr14": 14.43,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 30.48,
        "d": 31.75
      },
      "adx14": 37.66,
      "obv": 7.539573739999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "YFI",
    "timestamp": 1776754507940,
    "price": 2778,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 21.93,
        "signal": 15.67,
        "histogram": 6.26
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2808.63,
        "middle": 2716.85,
        "lower": 2625.07,
        "width": 6.76
      },
      "sma20": 2716.85,
      "sma50": 2670.5,
      "sma200": 2565.92,
      "ema12": 2736.67,
      "ema26": 2714.73,
      "atr14": 39.24,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.05,
        "d": 60.47
      },
      "adx14": 24.13,
      "obv": -29.875821360000028
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "YFI",
    "timestamp": 1776754507941,
    "price": 2778,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 49.26,
        "signal": 23.48,
        "histogram": 25.77
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2822.93,
        "middle": 2588.65,
        "lower": 2354.37,
        "width": 18.1
      },
      "sma20": 2588.65,
      "sma50": 2581.48,
      "sma200": 3502.76,
      "ema12": 2671.05,
      "ema26": 2621.79,
      "atr14": 101.33,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.59,
        "d": 71.32
      },
      "adx14": 17.33,
      "obv": -678.318732900001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Price2778
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.94
Leverage3
Stop loss2719.14
Take profit2883.95
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.12
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for YFI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score80.90
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence71.90
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 80.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score29
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,778
Funding rate
0.0100%
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See YFI chart with overlay More thesesAll YFI theses