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Thesis · thesis_mo8fxqva_y1breo
ENA

ENA

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T09:48:24Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.83%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.83% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1123
Entry high
$0.1135
Target 1
$0.1165
Target 2
$0.1187
Stop loss
$0.1100
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
69.1
Bullish
ADX 14
21.1
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
9.49% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1000
Lower 0.0800
above upper
SMA stack
200.0900
500.0900
2000.1100
TA Workspace · ENA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ENA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.104320 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
34,482.7586 ENA
$3.89K
Leverage
0.39x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1165
+1.24R$124.14(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1187
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.11
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ENA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 75.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 31.5, returned 35.64%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.6.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 38.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1100, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ENA Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. ENA cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ENA
Price0.11
Timestamp1776764688198
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 48.48,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.12,
    "middle": 0.12,
    "lower": 0.11,
    "width": 13.73
  },
  "sma20": 0.12,
  "sma50": 0.11,
  "sma200": 0.1,
  "ema12": 0.11,
  "ema26": 0.11,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 20.08,
    "d": 10.44
  },
  "adx14": 38.15,
  "obv": 2726796.2192199975
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ENA",
    "timestamp": 1776764688195,
    "price": 0.11291,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.3,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 2.34
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.12,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 89.64,
        "d": 79.88
      },
      "adx14": 23.64,
      "obv": 517503.79700000066
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ENA",
    "timestamp": 1776764688196,
    "price": 0.11291,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.57,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 5.28
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.12,
      "sma200": 0.11,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 53.4,
        "d": 35.78
      },
      "adx14": 16.44,
      "obv": 7212429.650510004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ENA",
    "timestamp": 1776764688197,
    "price": 0.11291,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 13.73
      },
      "sma20": 0.12,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20.08,
        "d": 10.44
      },
      "adx14": 38.15,
      "obv": 2726796.2192199975
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ENA",
    "timestamp": 1776764688198,
    "price": 0.11291,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.07,
        "width": 57.07
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 42.2,
        "d": 45.04
      },
      "adx14": 34.18,
      "obv": -104635962.05611
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest27401173.99
Price0.11
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.71
Leverage2
Stop loss0.11
Take profit0.12
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.58
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ENA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 31.5
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score85.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence78
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 31.5
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.6.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.80
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score28.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1129
Funding rate
-0.0049%
Open interest
$27.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ENA chart with overlay More thesesAll ENA theses