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Thesis · thesis_mo8g6t1t_vjml50
LDO

LDO

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T09:55:31Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +0.99%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +0.99% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3806
Entry high
$0.3814
Target 1
$0.3827
Target 2
$0.3837
Stop loss
$0.3795
LDO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.38830.36320.3380.31290.28780.3125/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
43.9
Bearish
ADX 14
20.8
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
3.21% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.3400
Lower 0.3000
inside
SMA stack
200.3200
500.3200
2000.3600
TA Workspace · LDO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LDO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.311730 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
66,666.6667 LDO
$25.40K
Leverage
2.54x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.306000
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3827
+1.13R$113.33(+1.13%)
T2 hit @ 0.3837
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.3795
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LDO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 77.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 26.4, returned 23.97%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 96.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 23.6, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3795, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
LDO Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. LDO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LDO
Price0.38
Timestamp1776765186045
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.55,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": -0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.41,
    "middle": 0.38,
    "lower": 0.34,
    "width": 19.33
  },
  "sma20": 0.38,
  "sma50": 0.38,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.37,
  "ema26": 0.38,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 87.8,
    "d": 66.2
  },
  "adx14": 23.59,
  "obv": 1070204.6152218098
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776765186044,
    "price": 0.381,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.38,
        "lower": 0.37,
        "width": 3.23
      },
      "sma20": 0.38,
      "sma50": 0.37,
      "sma200": 0.37,
      "ema12": 0.38,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.73,
        "d": 72.73
      },
      "adx14": 39.97,
      "obv": 142217.74572973992
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776765186044,
    "price": 0.381,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 10.56
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.37,
      "sma200": 0.38,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90,
        "d": 91.95
      },
      "adx14": 21.53,
      "obv": 284150.0386739301
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776765186045,
    "price": 0.381,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.41,
        "middle": 0.38,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 19.33
      },
      "sma20": 0.38,
      "sma50": 0.38,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.38,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.8,
        "d": 66.2
      },
      "adx14": 23.59,
      "obv": 1070204.6152218098
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776765186045,
    "price": 0.381,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.44,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 42.55
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.56,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 52.03,
        "d": 43.92
      },
      "adx14": 28.7,
      "obv": -16032711.01538119
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest7151060.07
Price0.38
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.38
Take profit0.38
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LDO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score96.30
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence85.20
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 96.3.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.20
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score19.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.381
Funding rate
0.0017%
Open interest
$7.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See LDO chart with overlay More thesesAll LDO theses